US Soybean Availability Extremely Tight

14/01/13 -- It's very interesting to note that Friday's USDA numbers pegged US soybean consumption and exports at a combined 80.3 MMT. US 2012/13 ending stocks were estimated at only 3.7 MMT, that's less than 2 1/2 weeks worth of supply, which is even tighter than that for corn.

It's doubly interesting to ponder that US exports are still raging ahead, with shipments plus outstanding sales already at 80% of the USDA's target for the whole of 2012/13. Physical shipments have in fact topped 1 MMT for a record 15 weeks in a row.

Today we have the news that the NOPA Dec crush came in at 159.9 million bushels, up 2.6 million on November and the second largest monthly crush on record (beaten only by Jan 2010). This domestic disappearance beats the level needed to match the USDA's crush projection for 2012/13 by a hefty 21.2 million bushels.

In fact, it takes the US crush to 9.9% ahead of last year's levels, when the USDA are projecting a decline of 5.75% for the full 2012/13 season.

Meanwhile the USDA have just announced the sale of 120 TMT of soybeans to China for 2012/13 shipment this afternoon.