A Quick Glance At The Global Rapeseed S&D Numbers
13/02/13 -- Stats Canada say that the country exported 8.3 MMT of rapeseed in the 2012 calendar year, up 5% on 2011. The top export home was China who took 3.0 MMT, more than double the volume they bought in 2011. Canada's second largest buyer was Mexico taking 1.5 MMT. Dec 31 stocks of 7.4 MMT were 23.6% lower than a year previously.
The Canadian Ministry say that 2012/13 rapeseed ending stocks will more than halve to a very tight 350 TMT on strong export and domestic crush demand.
ABARES yesterday upped their forecast for Australian rapeseed production in 2012 from the 2.64 MMT they estimated in December to 3.09 MMT, citing better than expected yields.
Australian rapeseed is currently banned from entry into the lucrative and expanding Chinese market, and has been since 2009, due to concerns that a fungal disease infecting some of the Australian crop would damage domestic production. There's talk of that ban being overturned in the next few months. If so that would potentially mean reduced Australian exports to Europe.
In Europe, seed availability is tight. Oil World estimate EU rapeseed crushings in the 1st half of 2013 at 9.68 MMT versus 10.55 MMT in the same period in 2012. EU rapeseed stocks as of January 1st were pegged at 9.40 MMT versus 10.24 MMT a year ago. They now estimate EU-27 rapeseed imports in 2012/13 at 3.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 2.75 MMT.
Oil World also say that 2013 rapeseed production in Ukraine should rebound from a 5-year low of 1.3 MMT last year due to much improved winter crop conditions, without giving a specific figure. Output in 2010/11 and 2011/12 was around 1.4-1.5 MMT.
French rapeseed production in 2013 is seen falling from around 5.5 MMT to 5.1-5.2 MMT on reduced plantings under difficult conditions in the autumn and subsequent excessive wetness issues across the winter.
Germany could regain pole position as Europe's largest rapeseed producer with a crop of 5.4-5.6 MMT in 2013, versus 4.8 MMT last year. Production in Poland is forecast at 2.1-2.2 MMT against 1.9 MMT in 2012, whilst output in the Czech Republic is seen at 1.2 MMT versus 1.1 MMT last year.
Tentative early private estimates on production here in the UK are around 2.5-2.8 MMT, similar to last year's 2.65 MMT, although I'm sure that there are many out there who would question that.
In Canada, early acreage forecasts for spring 2013 plantings are around 8 million ha versus 8.6 million in 2012, as growers shun rapeseed and turn to wheat. Even so, if yields were to return to average (1.9 MT/ha) then we could see production rebound to around 15.0-15.2 MMT this year versus 13.3 MMT in 2012.
The Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) say that rapeseed production there this year will rise 20% to 7.1 MMT, which may allow them to step up their exports of rapemeal to more than 1 MMT.
