Chicago Soybeans Rise, Corn And Wheat Fall Again
05/02/13 -- Soycomplex: Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.95 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.85 3/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.50, up USD4.20; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 52.98, down 13 points. Funds were said to have ended as net buyers of around 1,000 soybean contracts on the day. A tentatively wetter outlook for Argentina a week from now kept a lid on potential price rises. Mar 13 beans had another attempt at reaching USD15/bu but failed. Aboive estimated Brazil’s 2013 soybean crop at 82.3 MMT versus their previous estimate of 81.6 MMT. Ahead of Friday's USDA report the average trade estimate for Brazilian soybean production this year is 83.1 MMT from within a range of estimates of 81.5-84.0 MMT. The January USDA estimate was 82.5 MMT and last year's crop was 66.5 MMT. Argentina's soybean crop is estimated at an average 53.0 MMT out of a range of estimates of 51.0-55.7 MMT. The USDA's previous estimate was 54.0 MMT and the 2011/12 crop was 40.1 MMT. The trade is also anticipating a likely reduction to US 2012/13 ending stocks of 6 million bushels to 129 million, given the strong pace of exports and robust domestic crush.
Corn: Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.29, down 5 1/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.30 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents. Fund selling was estimated at around a net 7,000 contracts on the day. The demand side of the coin for US corn isn't anything like as rosy as it is for soybeans. Export sales continue to disappoint and ethanol plants are closing on a weekly basis. Brazil remain an aggressive exporter of corn at prices around USD15-20/tonne below those from the US. The average trade estimate for the Brazilian 2012/13 corn crop on Friday is 71.1 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 69.75–73.0 MMT. The USDA's January estimate was 71.0 MMT and the 2011/12 crop was 73.0 MMT. Argentina's crop is seen being reduced from last month's 28.0 MMT to an average 26.6 MMT, from within a range of estimates of 25.0-28.0 MMT and the 2011/12 crop of 21.0 MMT. Stats Canada's estimated corn stocks on Dec 31st there up 9.8% from a year ago at 10.365 MMT. The US Energy Dept will issue their weekly ethanol production data tomorrow. Last week's output was only 770,000 barrels/day - a new lowest weekly total since they starting issuing data in mid-2010. The trade is expecting only a relatively modest rise in US 2012/13 corn ending stocks to 615 million bushels in Friday's report. Last month's forecast was 602 million bushels.
Wheat: Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.57 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD8.07 1/4, down 9 3/4 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.41 3/4, down 5 1/4 cents. Fund selling was estimated at a net 2,000 Chicago wheat contracts on the day. Acute dryness for winter wheat on the Great Plains may finally be in for a break. "The Southern Great Plains may receive heavy rainfall on the weekend that boosts wheat development. The southern jet stream is making a new appearance, after a prolonged absence, improving chances for significant rainfall. Rainfall would be heaviest in Kansas, the top US wheat state, with 0.50-0.75 inch of rainfall in the western half of the wheat belt, and 0.75–1.25 inches in central Kansas. Oklahoma is also is slated to receive soaking rains from 0.50 to 1 inch. One inch of rainfall would go a long way, cutting the soil moisture deficit in half to 1.1 inches, compared to 2 inches presently," said Martell Crop Projections. A decline in US wheat exports may see the USDA raise 2012/13 US ending stocks on Friday to 728 million bushels, from within a range of trade estimates of 706-783 million and the USDA's January estimate of 716 million.
