The Morning Vibe

15/02/13 -- The overnight grains are showing a modest recovery from recent losses, with wheat around 7 cents firmer, corn up 5-6 cents and soybeans 2-3 cents steadier.

Whilst yesterday's USDA export sales report didn't confirm any of the rumoured wheat sales to Russia, Brazil or the UK it did include sales of 163,900 MT to "unknown" destinations. Agritel this morning are saying that they can confirm 100 TMT of US wheat sold to Brazil. Maybe that is why wheat is a bit firmer on the overnights?

US wheat sales now need to average around 550 TMT/week to hit the USDA's target for the season, so they need to develop a bit more consistency than they have displayed of late.

Coming soon to a not too discerning buyer near you! India, the new Primark of the grain export world, have reportedly sold 200 TMT of wheat overnight at just over USD310/tonne FOB for loading by the end of next month.

Ukraine say that they've shipped 16.9 MMT of grains so far this season, up 46% on year ago levels. That includes their supposed maximum of 6.3 MMT of wheat, along with 8.3 MMT of corn and nearly 2 MMT of barley. Feb 1 grain stocks are reported to be 34% down on this time a year ago.

Brussels confirmed late on yesterday that they'd issued 420,404 MT of soft wheat export licences this past week, as EU exports show absolutely no sign of letting up. This takes the marketing year to date total to 12.1 MMT, which is 44% up on this time a year ago. The USDA currently have the EU down to export 11.5% more wheat in 2012/13 than last season.

Israel are reported to have bought 100 TMT of optional origin corn (possibly from the Black Sea region or South America) for March/June shipment, along with 15 TMT of optional origin feed barley for March/May shipment.

The weather finally seems to be playing ball in South America, according to Martell Crop Projections:

"Argentina and Southern Brazil are expecting very heavy rainfall in the week ahead. Showers have already begun occurring the past couple of nights. Scattered showers, some heavy, have occurred in Argentina's central grain belt -- northern Buenos Aires and adjacent areas of Santa Fe and eastern Cordoba. This made a dent in the drought, though much more rain is still needed to replenish dry fields.

"In Brazil, northern and eastern Parana has received very heavy rainfall. Yet a stubborn pocket of drought remains in the southwestern part of the state a key farm region for both corn and soybeans. Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil's southernmost farm state, also has gotten rain relief in the east, while the northwest has continued dry.

"Where rain is occurring it is highly beneficial for soybeans filling pods. Recall that January was extremely dry in Argentina, in particular. Southern Brazil crops were also stressed by hot and dry weather last month.

"Mato Grosso faces a dry forecast. Last month was extremely wet in the top Brazil soybean state, so drying was needed. However, if it continues for a prolonged period it would be detrimental for late-filling soybeans. Harvesting of soybeans has begun in Mato Grosso for early planted short-cycle varieties."