USDA Outlook Forum

21/02/13 -- Day one of the USDA's Annual February Outlook Forum has kicked off with a range of early forecasts for US grains production in the year ahead from their Chief Economist Joseph Glauber.

US farmers are likely to plant 96.5 million acres of corn and 77.5 million acres of soybeans this spring, along with 56 million acres of all wheat - more than half of the latter which will already be in the ground.

Predictably forecasting a return to "normal" yields this year that potentially gives us a record corn crop of 14.53 billion bushels, up nearly 35% on last year's drought-battered production. Soybean output may also reach a record 3.405 billion bushels, up 13% on 2012. Wheat production is forecast to come in at 2.1 billion bushels, down 7.5% on last year despite a small increase in planted area, presumably reflecting the poor state of the winter crop as it went into dormancy.

Whilst at first glance you might call these numbers bearish for corn and soybeans, both the USDA acreage numbers are actually lower than many of the trade estimates that were already in the market. The corn figure is actually lower than last year and the soybean estimate only marginally higher.

For what it's worth this time a year ago the Forum pegged corn acres at 94 million, soybeans at 75 million and all wheat at 58 million. What we got in the end was 96.9 million, 77.2 million and 55.74 million respectively. So there clearly could be a couple of million acres either way between today's estimates and the final reality.

Stocks forecasts are not expected to be released until tomorrow.