Chicago Close - Tuesday
05/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans rose, but finished well off the highs, and maybe crucially failed to hold above the USD15/bu mark. Early strong gains were linked to news that private exporters had sold 330 TMT of old crop soybeans to unknown and 345 TMT of new crop sold to China under daily reporting system. Abiove estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop at 82.3 MMT, unchanged from previous their estimate. Michael Cordonnier placed it at 82.0 MMT, also unchanged from his previous estimate. The USDA said 83.5 MMT last month. Cordonnier pegged the Argentine crop at 50.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate and 3 MMT less than the USDA. Several analysts are now lining up around this 49-50 MMT mark. ABARES estimated that world soybean production for 2013/14 would come in at a record 279 MMT, with the US crop up 8% to 88.7 MMT, Brazil's crop at a record 84.5 MMT, +2% and Argentina's also at a record 55 MMT, +5%. Note in the case of the latter two these are next year's production estimates, not this year's. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.96 1/2, up 6 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.66 1/2, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD434.90, up USD2.70; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.92, down 13 points.
Corn: A very tight old crop cash market was supportive. South Korea canceled a tender to import 140 TMT of optional origin corn for July/August shipment due to high prices. The best offer was said to be USD313.40/tonne C&F. Israel are looking for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for April/June shipment. Michael Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 70.0 MMT. He put production in Argentina at 24.0 MMT unchanged from his previous estimate. The USDA currently go 72.5 MMT and 27.0 MMT respectively. ABARES estimated a rebound in world corn production in 2013/14 of almost 100 MMT to 944 MMT, mainly due to a return to "normal" yields in the US, where they have output up 30% to 352 MMT this year. Ukraine will see production rise 4% to 21 MMT, with next year's output in Brazil up 5% to 75 MMT and Argentina's up 6% to 28 MMT. The trade will be looking to see if ethanol production in the US continues to rise for a fifth week in succession tomorrow from last week's 812,000 barrels/day, the largest since the first week of the year. Fund buying was estimate at around 5-7,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.32, up 9 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.09, up 5 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Once again wheat was a follower of corn, supported by the notion that it is cheap with the latter trading at a 30 cent plus premium. Even so wheat was a reluctant follower with another winter storm across the Plains and Midwest this week set to improve moisture shortages further. Oklahoma winter wheat rated poor/very poor was cut by 8 percentage points in the past week, with good/excellent rising 7 points. ABARES estimated the 2013/14 US wheat crop at 57 MMT, down 7% on last year due to higher than normal abandonment and lower yields. The US was the only major exporting nation to see a production downgrade, with output in Russia forecast 41% higher, with strong rebounds in output also from Ukraine (+27%) and Kazakhstan (+64%). World wheat production will rise 32 MMT in the year ahead to 688 MMT, they said. Consumption will also increase, although by a more modest 8 MMT to 686 MMT, they added. Jordan bought 50 TMT of optional origin barley for May shipment. They are also tendering for wheat with a deadline of tomorrow. Funds were said to have been modest buyers of around 1,000 CBOT wheat on the day. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.96 1/4, up 1/4 cent; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.36 1/4, down 3/4 cent; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.08, up 1/2 cent.
