Nogger's Blog

26/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Talk of lower than expected yields out of Brazil's top producing state of Mato Grosso was supportive. Local analysts IMEA cut their production estimate for the state from 24.1 MMT to 23.6 MMT citing heavy rains at harvest time as the reason for the loss. Harvesting there is now 92.6% done, they added. Oil World estimated the Brazilian crop at 81.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 82.0 MMT. They also cut their forecast in Argentina from 50.0 MMT to 48.5 MMT. Meanwhile loading delays in Brazil's Santos port are said to be around 27-30 days, and double that in Paranagua. AgRural said 60% of the Brazilian bean crop has been harvested, up from 52% a week ago but fractionally behind 61% a year ago. The trade is gearing up for Thursday's stocks and planting intentions report. Oil World estimated Mar 1st US soybean stocks at 1.032 billion bushels versus a Dow Jones average guess of 947 million and a Bloomberg survey forecast of 935 million. US soybean plantings for the 2013 harvest are expected to be at record levels around 78.4 million acres, which explains the large inverse between old and new crop. Funds were estimated to have been net buyers of around 3,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.47 3/4, up 10 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.26 1/2, up 9 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD420.20, up USD2.40; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.82, up 38 points.

Corn: After a fortnight of steadily rising corn prices, and renewed fund buying, a bit of consolidation and profit-taking ahead of Thursday's reports was maybe only to be expected. Trade estimates for the Mar 1st stocks report sees US corn inventories at around 5 billion bushels, a 15-year low. Various estimates for US corn plantings this spring range from an unchanged 97.2 million acres to a 76-year high of 98.5 million acres. Again, this explains the sizable market inverse. Michael Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian corn crop at 74.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous forecast. He pegged output in Argentina at 24.0 MMT, also unchanged from previously. He said that Argentine corn harvest is about 15% complete versus 19% a year ago. Argentine corn is said to be currently being shipped into the US east coast. For all the talk of excessive wetness in the Deep South and Delta delaying early corn plantings, Louisiana is said to be 86% complete versus the 5-year average of 58% at this time. Mississippi corn planting is 37% complete versus 21% for the 5-year average. Georgia is behind though at 18% versus 29% normally. Tomorrow we get the latest weekly US ethanol grind data. Production has lagged the level needed to meet USDA targets for the last nine weeks. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers in corn to the tune of 4-5,000 contracts on the day. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.30 1/4, down 3 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD7.12 1/4, down 3 cents.

Wheat: Wheat got support from talk of possible damage to winter wheat on the Plains. "Freezing weather in Oklahoma may have damaged wheat plants that already were hurt by the worst drought since the 1930's. Temperatures overnight dropped to 15 degrees Fahrenheit (minus 9 Celsius) near Guymon, in the Oklahoma panhandle, National Weather Service data show," reported Bloomberg. Despite some improvements to crop conditions recently, the USDA yesterday reported that we still have more wheat in the top three winter wheat states of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas rated as poor/very poor than good/excellent. Kansas has 31% of the crop rated poor/very poor versus 29% a week ago, Oklahoma is 33% poor/very poor versus 37% a week ago and Texas is 47% poor/very poor versus 44% a week ago. The trade is expecting a US all wheat acreage of around 56.4 million acres on Thursday, with Mar 1st stocks at around 1.18 billion bushels. Reuters reported that despite dangerously low wheat stocks Egypt is unlikely to tender to buy wheat internationally before the end of the current financial year (which only closes at the end of June). UkrAgroConsult estimated Ukraine’s 2013 grain crop at 53.3 MMT with the wheat crop accounting for 21.07 MMT of that versus the USDA's estimate of 15.76 MMT in 2012. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.31 1/2, up 4 1/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.68 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.10 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents.