Nogger's Blog

25/03/13 -- Soycomplex: It's only Monday and already it looks like we could be in for a sideways few days ahead of Thursday's upcoming USDA reports. Weekly export inspections today were 18.458 million bushels, more than double last week's total, but to put it into perspective that was the lowest of the season so far. Paraguay’s Ag Ministry said that the 2012/13 soybean crop there could be "above 8.0 MMT" and with the crop 90% harvested they should have a fairly accurate idea of where things are going to end up. That would be a record production from the world's fourth largest exporter of soybeans. The Ministry said that bean yields are averaging 2.7-2.8 MT/ha, and in some areas reaching 4.0 MT/ha versus the historic average of 2.6 MT/ha. Shipping delays continue in Brazil, with Paranagua now said to be 54-56 days and Santos at 18-40 days. Landlocked Paraguay ship around 60% of their beans through Argentina and 40% via Uruguay. Delays routing beans through Argentina are already said to be 20-45 days, before Argentine growers themselves really get cracking with their own soybean harvest (currently said to be only 5% complete). Ahead of Thursday's reports a Bloomberg survey estimated US soybean planted area in 2013 at a record 78.35 million acres versus Informa’s estimate of 78.457 million released last week and the 77.2 million planted last year. A different survey shows Mar 1st soybean stocks are expected to come in at 935 million bushels versus 1.374 billion a year previously. Fund selling in beans was estimated at around 2,000 contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.37 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.17 1/2, down 1/2 cent; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD417.80, down USD1.50; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.44, up 1 point.

Corn: The corn market continues to nudge stealthily higher. Weekly export inspections were 17.225 million bushels, up 1.3 million on last week, but still lag the pace needed to hit USDA targets. The market remains firm however on ideas of increased US usage. All ten of Valero's US ethanol plants are now said to be back online. The USDA will report on domestic Mar 1st stocks on Thursday, with the trade expecting a figure of around 5 billion bushels of corn versus just over 6 billion a year previously. A Bloomberg survey puts the 2013 US corn planted area at 97.3 million acres versus Informa’s estimate of 97.753 million and last year's 97.2 million. UAE bought 40,000 MT of corn over the weekend, possibly of South American origin. The Philippine Ag Secretary estimated their 2013 corn crop at 8.4 MMT versus 7.8 MMT a year ago. The current cold and wet conditions in the US are seen delaying early planting hopes. Friday's Commitments of Traders data shows spec money coming back into the market for corn. As of March 19th, Non-Commercial traders were net long 215,152 contracts, up 61,841 contracts on the week. Trend-Following Funds (Non-Commercials net of Index Funds) held a net long position of 100,385 contracts, up 61,086 contracts on the week. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 4,000 corn contracts today. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.33 1/4, up 7 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD7.15 1/4, up 6 3/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market finished a little lower, but garnered spillover support from corn. Heavy snow over the weekend on the Plains was seen as beneficial for winter wheat. Europe and Ukraine also are seen benefiting from recent substantial snow. India offered the lowest price in a Bangladeshi wheat tender, and Australian wheat was said to be the most competitive in an Iraqi tender that closed at the weekend. Indonesia bought 30 TMT of Australian wheat at USD330 C&F over the weekend. India released another 160,000 MT of wheat for export on Friday. Russia said that they are close to agreeing the removal of their grain import duty. Weekly export inspections were 20.788 million bushels, which is quite respectable although 3.199 million lower than last week. The trade is expecting US all wheat acres at 56.414 million on Thursday, versus 56.074 million from Informa last week and 55.736 million last year. Mar 1st wheat stocks are expected to come in at 1.177 billion bushels versus 1.199 a year previously. Friday's Commitments of Traders report shows spec money covering in some of their CBOT wheat shorts in the week through to March 19th. Non-Commercial traders were net short 19,840 contracts, down 8,566 contracts for the week. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.27 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.59, down 2 1/2 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.05 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.