Chicago Posts Modest Rally As South American Shipping Delays Get Longer
11/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Shipping delays out of Brazil are now at least 40 days, and as much as 60 days depending on the port, according to some reports. There's also still a strike lined up for next week. Widespread rains in Brazil this past week are seen slowing down the harvest and causing problems getting corn and soybeans to the ports. New truck driver regulations concerning the maximum number of hours behind the wheel that they are permitted are also said to adding to the logistical nightmare. That should keep at least some demand going the way of the US, although today's export inspections of only 17.114 million bushels were less than half the 40.336 million of last week. Even so that's well above the 7.22 million bushels needed to meet the USDA export projection. Safras e Mercado said that the Brazilian soybean crop is 48% harvested versus 37% a week ago and 46% a year ago. Mato Grosso’s soybean harvest is 74% complete versus 76% a year ago and 57% normally at this time. There's talk of a frost threat for Argentina Thu–Fri. The USDA issued a correction to the sale of 345,000 MT of new crop soybeans reported last week. It was actually 225,000 MT of new crop soybeans and 120,000 MT of new crop corn. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around a net 3-4,000 contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.14 3/4, up 6 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.79 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.10, up USD2.00; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.24, up 8 points.
Corn: Weekly export inspections of 14.437 million bushels were in line with trade estimates of 10-15 million, but not quite enough to meet the newly lowered USDA target for the season. Friday's surprise hike in US domestic feed usage of corn added support for old crop though. The correction of last week's misreported soybean sale by the USDA was also a little friendly for new crop. Safras e Mercado said that 37% of Brazil’s 1st corn crop has been harvested versus 35% a year ago. Planting of the 2nd corn crop is 78% complete versus 80% a year ago, they added. They estimated Brazil’s 2nd corn crop at 40.036 MMT versus 37.976 MMT a year ago. South Korea's MFG bought 68 TMT of optional origin corn for June shipment from Toepfer at a reported USD310.90 C&F. South America is thought to be the most likely origin for that, US stocks will be very tight by then. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said the Ukraine has exported 9.7 MMT of corn so far this marketing year. POET are said to now also be considering sorghum as a feedstock, in addition to wheat, due to high domestic corn prices. Funds were estimated to have bought around 8-9,000 corn contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.34 1/2, up 9 1/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.11 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.
Wheat: There are signs of a continued pick up in demand for US wheat. Last week's export sales of 618,100 MT of old crop and 210,000 MT of new crop comfortably beat trade forecasts for sales of a combined 300-600 TMT. Today we had weekly export inspections of 27.856 million bushels, an increase from 24.844 million last week, and above the 25.319 million needed to hit the USDA's target for the season. India cancelled two export tenders, with their price aspirations seemingly too high. Whilst conditions on the Plains have improved significantly it still needs to be remembered that any improvement in winter wheat conditions will start from the lowest base in history. Meanwhile, "moisture remains short across the Pacific Northwest white winter wheat belt, and little improvement is expected there over the next ten days," said MDA CropCast. The trade was a little surprised that the USDA didn't increase domestic wheat usage in feed in Friday's report but the Quarterly Stocks data, due to be released at the end of the month, may give to clearer picture on the amount of wheat being fed, say Benson Quinn Commodities. Fund buying in CBOT wheat was estimated at around 1-2,000 contracts on the day. They still remain heavily short based on Friday's Commitment of Traders Report. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.94, up 4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/4, unchanged; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11, up 4 3/4 cents.
