Nogger's Blog

04/03/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed near session highs with support coming from a Safras e Mercado cut of 2.4 MMT in Brazilian soybean production this year to 82.24 MMT. That's 1.26 MMT lower than the USDA and 2.26 MMT beneath Informa's estimate released on Friday. Harvesting is ahead of schedule at 37% versus 28% a week ago, 33% a year ago and 23% for the 5-year average. The average bean yield is 2.973 MT/ha versus their previous estimate of 3.075 MT/ha, they added. In a separate forecast AgRural estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 82.1 MMT. Oil World cut their Argentine soybean production estimate to 49 MMT versus the USDA's 53 MMT. The Agripac consultancy estimated Argentina’s bean crop at 50.0 MMT. Strong demand for old crop US soybeans remains. The USDA reported weekly export inspections of 40.274 million bushels, up sharply from the 27.764 million of the previous week and above trade expectations of 30-35 million. The USDA are expected to lower slightly their US 2012/13 ending stocks estimate in Friday's WASDE report. Funds were said to have been net buyers of around 3-5,000 soybean contracts on the day. Mar 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.90 1/4, up 25 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.62, up 18 1/2 cents; Mar 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD432.20, up USD4.90; Mar 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.05, up 58 points.

Corn: The corn market was dragged lower by sharply weaker wheat, although old crop remains well supported by lack of physical availability. To further tighten that noose, the USDA announced 100 TMT of US old crop corn sold to unknown. Safras e Mercado said as of March 1st 29% of the Brazilian main corn crop has been harvested versus 24% a year ago. They also said that as of March 1st 66% of the Brazilian second corn crop has been planted versus 67% a year ago. AgroConsult estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 corn crop at 75.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 74.7 MMT and 72.5 MMT from the USDA. One survey of 19 analysts released today puts US 2012/13 ending stocks at 649 million bushels from within a range of estimates of 627–750 million and the USDA February estimate of 632 million. Weekly export inspections of 15.740 million bushels was up from the 11.745 million reported last week and beat trade expectations of 8-13 million. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 7,000 corn contracts on the day. Mar 13 Corn closed at USD7.23, down 1 1/4 cents; May 13 Corn closed at USD7.03 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market crashed on forecasts for another wave of moisture for winter wheat on the Plains and across the Midwest this week. Export inspections of 23.980 million bushels were in line with trade expectations of 23-28 million. The slow start to the season that US wheat exports had means that the 2012/13 marketing year to date total is now only 692.280 million versus 743.741 million this time a year ago. That has the trade forecasting a rise in US 2012/13 carryout on Friday to 713 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 671–754 million, and versus the USDA February estimate of 691 million. There were 353 deliveries made against the KCBT March contract, indicating that unlike corn there is no shortage of physical wheat availability in the US. IKAR said that Russia had imported 891 TMT of grain between July 1st and Feb 28th, with 530 TMT of that coming from Kazakhstan. UkrAgroConsult said 91.5% of Ukraine’s winter grain crop is in good to satisfactory condition. Fund selling in CBOT wheat was estimated at a net 4,000 contracts on the day, further extending their short position. Mar 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.96, down 17 1/4 cents; Mar 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.37, down 19 cents; Mar 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.07 1/2, down 12 1/4 cents.