The Morning News
04/03/13 -- The overnight grains are mixed with wheat generally around 3-5 cents lower, corn up 2-3 cents nearby and soybeans 2-3 cents steadier to 2-3 cents weaker.
One thing that strikes this morning is that Mar 13 corn is now 15 cents dearer than Mar 13 wheat. Mar 13 corn was an 80 cent discount to Mar 13 wheat at the turn of the year. According to Bloomberg the average premium for what over corn has been over USD1.50 during the past decade.
Another thing worth noting is the increasing differential between old and new crop, Mar 13 corn and Dec 13 corn, currently up to 170 cents, versus just under a dollar on Dec 31. In addition, the cash basis remains very strong.
All this points to a very tight old crop physical supply situation in the US, regardless of what the futures market is doing.
Wheat, at these kind of discounts to corn, should find good end-user demand.
Saudi Arabia bought 110 TMT of soft wheat and 465 TMT of hard wheat for Jun/Aug shipment over the weekend. Origin was unspecified.
The pound is under pressure again, falling to 1.50 against the dollar this morning.
In Argentina, MDA CropCast say that: "Weekend rainfall was near expectations. Scattered showers occurred in southern Chaco, Cordoba, Entre Rios, Santa Fe, Buenos Aires, and La Pampa. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.0” locally up to 2.75” with 85% coverage."
In Brazil: "Weekend rainfall was slightly below expectations. Showers favored central Rio Grande do Sul, Goias, far northern Sao Paulo, southern Minas Gerais, central Mato Grosso do Sul, and eastern Mato Grosso. Amounts were 0.25 to 1.0”, locally up to 4.0” with coverage of 35% for corn and soybeans," they add.
London wheat has opened with new crop Nov 13 GBP1.50/tonne lower at GBP186.15/tonne. Paris wheat is EUR0.50-1.00/tonne lower in early trade.
