The USDA Numbers

Posted by Nogger - a legend in his own mind at 16:06 | Categorized as

28/03/13 -- The USDA numbers are out, and here's the gist of it. Much larger corn stocks than anticipated at 5.4 billion bushels, that's higher than the highest trade estimate. Bean stocks of 1 billion bushels were also above the highest trade estimate and wheat stocks of 1.23 billion were right at the top end of expectations.

On the acreage front we got a small reduction in soybean plantings from last year, rather than the big hike to all time highs that the trade was expecting. Corn and wheat acres came in bang on the average trade forecast.

For corn that stocks number is VERY bearish, that was the number that everyone was looking for, and CBOT futures quickly went limit down on the news. Wheat was 35 cents down and soybeans 25 cents lower just after 16.00 GMT.

The soybean stocks number is bearish, but the plantings forecast is a bit friendly, but there should be plenty of South American kit still kicking around come the 2013 US soybean harvest.

Wheat stocks are also bearish, the only thing that there's more of in the US this year than there was last year. Acreage is neutral.

Planting intentions:

Mln Acres
USDA
Avg Est
Range
USDA Feb
USDA 2012
All Wheat
56.4
56.4
55.6-57.3
56.0
55.7
Corn
97.3
97.3
95.7-98.5
96.5
97.2
Beans
77.1
78.4
77.0-79.7
77.5
77.2

Mar 1st 2013 Stocks:

Bln bushels
USDA
Avg Est
Range
USDA Mar 12
Wheat
1.23
1.167
1.010-1.238
1.199
Corn
5.40
5.030
4.916-5.248
6.023
Beans
1.00
0.935
0.905-0.984
1.374