Nogger's Blog

24/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed lower for a third session in a row, pressured by an improved Midwest weather outlook. Lanworth Inc increased their forecast for US soybean production this year from 3.38 billion bushels to 3.42 billion, up 12% on output of 3.015 billion in 2012. News that the Chinese bird flu outbreak has now spread to Taiwan was also viewed as bearish. The H7N9 Bird Flu virus has infected 108 people and killed 22 in China since it was first detected. Nearby demand remains strong though, which is reflected in cash premiums at near record levels. It will be interesting to see if tomorrow's weekly export sales include a decent slug of old crop sales Trade estimates are for combined soybean sales of 600 TMT - 1 MMT. The USDA today announced the sale of 116 TMT of new crop US soybeans to unknown destinations. Funds were estimated as being net sellers of around 3,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.04, down 15 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.45 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD405.90, down USD5.80; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.18, up 61 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher, albeit modestly, for the first time this week. Lanworth increased their 2013 US corn production forecast from 13.72 billion bushels to a record 13.93 billion, with potential yields were upped from 155.8 bu/acre to 158.1 bu/acre on the back of recent weather improvements. They also increased their Brazilian corn production forecast for 2012/13 from 76.0 MMT to 77.1 MMT. The weekly ethanol grind data was supportive, showing production up 21,000 barrels/day on last week to 853,000 bpd. POET announced that it was re-opening an ethanol plant in Montana due to better margins. South Korea said it had bought 55 TMT of optional origin corn overnight for August arrival at the lowest price it has managed to achieve in almost 10 months. Israel bought 100 TMT of optional origin corn overnight, possibly thought to be from South America. Stats Canada is projecting corn plantings there this year up 17.6% on last year at 3.81 million acres. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-600 TMT. Funds were estimates as being net buyers of around 4,000 contracts on the day. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.39 1/2, up 1 cent; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.18 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market was mixed, with Chicago ending lower and Minneapolis and Kansas finishing higher. Lanworth Inc lowered slightly their US all wheat production estimate from 2.02 billion bushels to 2.007 billion. They pegged Australian wheat production in 2013/14 at 25 MMT, up 13% on 2012/13. Jordan passed once again on their tender to buy 100 TMT of wheat due to price. Russia sold 57,884 MT of intervention grain in it's regular twice weekly offering. Japan bought 70 TMT of feed wheat and 20 TMT of barley for shipment by the end of July. They are also tendering for 95,621 MT of milling wheat for May/Jul delivery, most of which will be of US origin, with the results expected tomorrow. Israel bought 45 TMT of feed wheat, expected to be of Black Sea origin. Ukraine said it will raise the ceiling on 2012/13 wheat exports. There's talk that Russia too will soon be back in the export market. Stats Canada came out with a bearish wheat planting estimate of 26.6 million acres, up 12% on an area of 23.7 million in 2012. Many farmers are seen switching into wheat and out of rapeseed. Estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500-800 TMT. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.91 3/4, down 5 3/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.39, up 1 3/4 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.17 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.