Nogger's Blog

01/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans did their best to divorce themselves from crashing corn but still posted double digit losses on the day as the fallout from Thursday's USDA report continues. May 13 beans are now down 63 cents, or 4.3%, since Wednesday's night's close, finishing below USD14/bu for the first time since mid-January. Brazil's Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 3.54 MMT of beans in March, substantially more than the 959,600 MT exported in February, although down on 4.24 MMT in March 2012. The Parana soybean harvest is 74% complete as of versus 67% a week ago. AgRural estimated the Brazilian soybean crop at 81.2 MMT, down slightly from a previous estimate of 82.1 MMT. Safras e Mercado said that nationally 72% of the Brazilian soybean crop has been harvested versus 64% a week ago, 72% a year ago, and compared with 62% for the 5-year average. Weekly US soybean export inspections of 16.3 million bushels were down on 18.458 million the previous week. Shipping delays in Brazil (over 56 days in Paranagua and almost 42 days in Santos) continue to disrupt availability from Brazil. China were rumoured to have bought 1-2 cargoes of US beans off the PNW for immediate shipment. Fund selling on Thursday was estimated at around 20,000 contracts in beans and a further 6-9,000 lots today. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.90 3/4, down 14 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.72 1/4, down 13 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD398.50, down USD6.10; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 50.06, down 5 points.

Corn: The demise of corn continues. Heavy fund selling of around 40,000 lots on Thursday and a further similar volume today mean that prices can only go one way. May 13 tonight stands 93 cents lower than Wednesday night's close for a loss of almost 12.7% in two trading sessions. The Brazilian Trade Ministry said Brazil exported 1.6 MMT of corn in March versus 2.29 MMT in February and 278,300 MT in March 2012. Safras e Mercado said that 54% of the Brazilian 1st corn crop has been harvested versus 59% a year ago and that planting of Brazil’s 2nd corn crop is virtually complete. The Parana corn harvest is 59% complete versus 51% a week ago. Japan are said to be looking for 700 TMT of corn for April/June shipment and South Korea for 1.1 MMT of corn for August/Sept shipment as lower prices flush out some buyers. Recent price declines don't necessarily mean that the US will pick up the business though, with offers out of South America and the Black Sea also likely to be competitive. US weekly export inspections of 19.139 million bushels were slightly better than trade expectations, although cumulative exports are less than half of year ago levels. The Mosaic CEO estimated 2013 US corn plantings at below 96.0 million acres versus the USDA estimate of 97.3 million and 97.2 million a year ago. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.42 1/4, down 53 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.26 3/4, down 49 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat got stung once again by spillover weakness in corn, with funds estimated as selling an estimated 10,000 contracts on the day, to add to the 12,000 sold on Thursday. May 13 CBOT wheat is now almost 10% lower than in was on Wednesday night. South Korea are said to be looking for 450 TMT of feed wheat for August/Sept shipment. Tunisia were said to have cancelled a tender to buy durum wheat due to high prices. Morocco were said to have bought 178 TMT of of local soft wheat. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that Ukraine had exported 19.4 MMT of grain so far this season, up 24.7% from a year ago. Weekly US export inspections of 25.736 million bushels were very respectable and up on 20.788 million a week ago. The USDA is back to giving us regular weekly crop condition reports now that we are into April. For winter wheat they said that nationally 34% of the crop is rated good/excellent compared to 58% a year ago. Poor/very poor is 30% compared to only 12% last year. Poor/very poor in Colorado (42%), Nebraska (49%) and South Dakota (76%) are all said to be record low ratings for the first week after the winter. California, Ohio and Oregon are the only states that have better winter wheat conditions than this time last year. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.64, down 23 3/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.09 3/4, down 17 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.65 3/4, down 14 1/2 cents.