Nogger's Blog

19/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed well off the session highs in what was probably profit-taking ahead of the weekend. Talk of corn planting delays leading to extra soybean acres for the 2013 harvest added a bit of weakness. Strong old crop demand should continue to support the nears though. As well as soybean commitments running at 99.7% of USDA targets for the season, meal sales are also at 99% which should underpin domestic crush demand going forward. Meal sales of 266,000 MT for the current marketing year reported by the USDA yesterday were impressive. Talk of Argentine farmers reluctance to sell is supportive, as they are the largest meal exporters in the world. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange estimated the Argentine soybean crop at 48.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate and said that 38.6% of the crop has been harvested versus 24% a week ago. Fund selling in beans was estimated at 3-5,000 lots on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.28 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.82 1/2, down 7 1/2 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD412.40, up USD1.40; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.16, down 50 points. For the week May 13 beans were up 15 1/4 cents, meal up USD12.20 and oil down 7 points.

Corn: Corn closed higher in what was also probably a bit of consolidation and book squaring ahead of the weekend. Extremely wet and unusually cold conditions in the Midwest are seen switching some of the intended corn acreage into soybeans. "Warming in the US heartland may not be in the cards until early May," warn Martell Crop Projections. Indonesia seeks 150 TMT of optional origin corn for June shipment. Malaysia is also looking for 120 TMT of optional origin (possibly South American) corn for June shipment. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange said that 31.7% of Argentine corn harvest is complete versus 28.2% a week ago. They estimated the crop at 25.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Argentine Ministry estimated the corn crop at a record 25.7 MMT and pegged harvesting at 36% complete. The Japanese Ag Ministry said that the country imported 1.16 MMT of corn in February, up 7.2% from a year ago. Only 37.6% of corn imports were from the US though, versus 88.1% a year ago. The Deutsche Bank said that the USDA is over estimating domestic US corn feed usage. Fund buying was estimated at around 5,000 lots on the day. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.52, up 7 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.33, up 3 1/4 cents. For the week May corn was still down 6 1/2 cents though.

Wheat: Wheat closed higher as another deep freeze threatens to cut US production on the Plains further. T Storm Weather said that 38% of the Kansas winter wheat crop, 10% of Oklahoma winter wheat and 29% of Texas winter wheat has the potential freeze damage. Not everybody sees it that way though. "A hard freeze occurred on the High Plains for the second straight night, temperatures falling to the low 20s F. Wheat development is behind schedule, not yet in the vulnerable flowering stage, when a hard freeze causes severe and irreversible damage," said Martell Crop Projections. Meanwhile on the northern Plains and into Canada more snow is in the forecast further delaying spring wheat planting. "North Dakota and western Minnesota wheat farms are buried beneath a thick layer of snow, not apt to melt anytime soon with a cold forecast. Likewise, Manitoba and Saskatchewan farms are frozen and snow covered, pointing to serious planting delays. In a northern climate, where the growing season is short, planting delays are especially threatening," they add. Stats Canada come out on Wednesday with their 2013 planting intentions report. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.09, up 6 1/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.46, up 2 1/4 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.25 1/2, up 7 3/4 cents. CBOT wheat was still down 5 3/4 cents on the week.