Chicago Mixed, Soybeans Up, Wheat And Corn Down
26/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans traded both sides, but managed to close with modest gains, despite minimal support from wheat or corn. There's talk of more Chinese soybean cancellations and/or rolling over of existing old crop purchases into new crop. Based on yesterday's weekly export sales data the US already has 99% of the USDA target for the season on the books, and 92% of it is shipped already, so further cancellations now shouldn't be too destructive. Soymeal sales incidentally are now 101% of the USDA target for the season, so an increase to exports there, and possibly a hike therefore in the domestic crush could be on the cards in the May WASDE report. A delay to timely planting of the 2013 US crop is what the market is fretting about. The IGC forecast China's 2012/13 soybean imports down 2 MMT from last month to 59 MMT. A Brazilian analyst said that, as of 25 April, Brazil has already exported 6.58 MMT of beans this month versus 3.53 MMT in the whole of March. The Rosario Grain Exchange said that Argentine farmers have only forward sold 26% of their soybean crop, versus 46% this time a year ago, as they continue to hold beans as a hedge against inflation and the declining peso. Fund buying in beans was estimated at around 3-4,000 contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.30 3/4, up 7 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.81, up 8 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD417.90, up USD3.60; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.66, down 11 points. For the week that places front month May 13 beans 2 1/2 cents higher, with meal up USD5.50 and oil up 50 points.
Corn: The trade isn't expecting any huge improvement in Monday's corn planting progress report, with maybe around 8-10% of the US crop in the ground versus 4% a week ago and 33% normally. It is however expecting a big improvement to be made in the week ahead, which should be reflected in the USDA's report due May 6th. Warmer and drier weather is in the forecast for the US Midwest next week. US corn sales currently stand at 81% of the USDA target for the season, versus 85.5% normally at this time. Old crop sales need to average just over 200 TMT/week to hit USDA targets. Indonesia bought 200 TMT of South American corn for May/Jun shipment overnight. Corn planting in China is seen at 16.8% completed, slightly lower than average at this time. The Ukraine Ag Ministry said that Ukraine has exported 20.6 MMT of grains so far this season, including 6.49 MMT of wheat and 11.76 MMT of corn. Fund money continues to desert the grains sector, and corn in particular. Net fund ownership of corn, soybeans, CBOT and KCBT wheat as of Apr 23 was USD27.2 billion, down USD1.7 billion on the week and down 40.6% year-on-year - its lowest value since December 2011. Funds were estimated as being further net sellers of around 5-7,000 corn contracts today. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.44, down 1 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.19 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents. May 13 was 8 cents lower on the week, with Jul 13 down 13 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat didn't put up any sort of a positive performance heading into the weekend, with little sign of this week's price decline encouraging any fund short-covering. The trade will be looking with interest to Monday's crop report to see if any further freeze damage appears to have been done to wheat on the Plains this week. The threat of that has at least been supporting Kansas wheat relative to Chicago and Minneapolis this week. There's talk that Egypt's GASC may tender for wheat next week. If they do then US origin material might stand a decent chance, although it will be interesting to see if there are any Black Sea offers, judging on this week's talk of Ukraine and possibly Russia re-entering the market. Yesterday's weekly export sales report included only 71,700 MT of old crop wheat, with 253 TMT/week needed to hit the USDA target for the season. An Asian buyer is reportedly seeking 300 TMT of US or Australian wheat for July shipment. Ukraine and Russian weather conditions remain largely dry for the week ahead, which is seen a beneficial for planting progress, for now. Ukraine in particular seem confident of a very strong rebound in grain and oilseed output this year. Funds were estimated to have been net sellers of around 2-3,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.88 3/4, down 12 1/2 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.56 1/2, down 7 1/4 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, down 12 cents. For the week that puts Chicago wheat down just over 20 cents, with Kansas adding 10 1/2 cents and Minneapolis losing 14 1/4 cents.
