Nogger's Blog

04/04/13 -- Soycomplex: Weekly export sales of 392,700 MT of old crop and 355,100 MT of new crop soybeans beat expectations for a combined 300-625 TMT. China bought 138,400 MT of the old crop and almost all (354,000 MT) of the new crop. That takes net 2012/13 soybean export commitments to 99% of USDA projections. Weekly shipments of 473,569 MT take the total volume exported so far this season to 32.94 MMT, which is 90% of the USDA estimate for a season with five months still left to run. Even so the market closed lower on nervousness over the current outbreak of bird flu in China which has now killed 5 people. In Brazil, DERAL (the Department of Rural Economics), said that the Parana soybean harvest is 82% complete. They estimate production in the state at 15.2 MMT, up 41% from a year ago. Funds were estimated as net sellers of around 5,000 soybean contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.72, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.51 3/4, down 6 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD397.10, down USD0.90; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.55, down 60 points.

Corn: Weekly export sales for corn were 354,300 MT of old crop and 33,000 MT of new crop versus expectations of a combined 175-400 TMT. Total commitments now stand at 74% of USDA projections. DERAL said that 70% of the full season corn harvest is completed in Parana and estimated the crop there at 6.84 MMT, up 4% from a year ago. They said that Parana’s safrinha corn crop will come in at 11.3 MMT and said that 96% of it has already been planted. The Rosario Exchange lowered their Argentine corn production estimate from 25.5 MMT to 25.3 MMT, versus 26.5 MMT from the USDA. They said that 23% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested so far. Japan’s 3rd quarter US corn imports may jump 41%, according to Continental Rice Corp in Tokyo. The USDA attaché in China forecasts their 2013 corn production rising to a record 210 MMT, estimating 2013/14 imports at a fairly modest 4 MMT. Imports may not even reach that level if China produces the 213 MMT currently forecast by Informa Economics or the 216 MMT suggested from Lanworth Inc. Funds remain heavily out of love with corn, selling an estimated 12-15,000 contracts on the day. That puts them in the ballpark of selling an estimated 100,000 lots since the damning USDA stocks report came out last Thursday. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.30, down 11 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.18 1/2, down 11 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Old crop weekly export sales of just 141,200 MT were a marketing-year low and a big disappointment, being down 76% from the previous week and down 78% versus the prior 4-week average. New crop sales of 174,800 MT took the combined total to 316,000 MT, below trade expectations of 4-700 TMT. Exports of 508,300 MT were however quite respectable. Total season to date shipments are now 20.4 MMT, with a further 5 MMT on the books and waiting to go. That takes 2012/13 total commitments to 89% of the USDA projection for the season. There's lots of talk of China buying US wheat due to problems with existing purchases from Canada, but there's been no official confirmation of this yet. India are said to be considering lowering the bar on the price that they are prepared to take to shift some of their very large wheat surplus with new crop harvesting now starting to pressurise the already overburdened domestic storage system. The ongoing cold spell across much of Europe is holding back winter wheat development and slowing spring plantings. The Commonwealth Bank said that the French winter wheat crop is currently around 2 weeks behind schedule. Fund selling in CBOT wheat was estimated at around 4,000 contracts on the day. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.94, down 2 1/2 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.21 3/4, down 13 1/2 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.86 1/2, down 5 cents.