Chicago Close - Thursday
16/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The USDA's weekly export sales report gave us net sales of 15,300 MT of old crop soybeans along with 346,600 MT of new crop. In line with expectations for sales of a combined 2-600 TMT. Net old crop commitments are 99.3% of the USDA target for the season, and 94% of that is already shipped with 3 1/2 months still left to go. Soymeal export sales were stronger than expected at 192,500 MT. MDA CropCast estimated China's 2013 soybean crop at 11.81 MMT down 180,000 MT from last week and down 3.4% on last year. CNGOIC estimated China's June soybean imports at 7.0-7.5 MMT, placing July imports at "above 6.0 MMT" and forecast both August and September shipments at 5.0 MMT each. Argentine farmers continue to hoard soybeans as a hedge against inflation and the weakening peso. The Argentine Ag Ministry said that farmers there have only sold 6.1 MMT of their new crop soybeans, down more than 40% on this time last season. Fund buying in beans was estimated at a net 5,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.27 1/2, up 14 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.24 3/4, up 7 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD414.90, up USD4.40; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.52, up 17 points.
Corn: Corn export sales came in at 219,900 MT of old crop and a modest 38,600 MT of new crop, at the low end of trade forecasts for a combined 2-400 TMT. The US now has 87% of the USDA target for the season on the books, with a third of that target shipped so far. A report on Reuters said that 2 MMT of South American corn is scheduled to be shipped to the US between now and August. South Korea's Kocopia bought 55 TMT of Brazilian corn for August shipment. MDA CropCast forecast the world corn crop up 12.8% in 2013/14 led by a near 30% hike in US production. They increased their projections for output in Ukraine, Russia, Europe and Argentina versus last week. They also forecast the world barley crop up nearly 7% to 135.9 MMT this year. For US corn "rains were much more limited this past week, which allowed planting to increase considerably. However, rains should now build back across the region, and planting progress will slow a bit, especially in south central and northwestern portions of the Midwest. Planting should progress well in far northeastern areas," they said. Funds were estimated as net sellers of around 8,000 corn contracts on the day. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.41 1/2, down 9 1/4 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.53 3/4, down 9 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market fell in line with corn. MDA CropCast increased their estimate for 2013/14 world wheat production by 6 MMT from last week "due mainly to increased acreage and yield expectations in the U.S, EU-27, and FSU." They also upped potential Canadian output by 2.1 MMT from last week to 29.7 MMT, an increase of 12.5% on last year. In Canada this week "the lack of widespread rains allowed spring wheat planting to progress very well," they said. US weekly export sales for wheat were 125,000 MT of old crop and 415,600 MT of new crop versus trade forecasts of a combined 2-500 TMT. The US now 95.7% of the USDA target for the Jun/May 2012/13 marketing year on the books. With only a few weeks remaining to the end of the 2012/13 season though there's still 2.3 MMT worth of outstanding sales left unshipped, meaning that it looks likely that there will be some carryover of sales into 2013/14 and the USDA target of exports of 28 MMT this year is unlikely to be met. Bangladesh bought 50 TMT of optional origin wheat, possibly Indian, for June shipment. Japan bought a 147,620 MT combo of US, Canadian and Australian wheat for June–Aug shipment. Fund selling in CBOT wheat was estimated at a net 2-3,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.87 3/4, down 6 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.43 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.04, up 1/4 cent.
