Nogger's Blog

14/05/13 -- Soycomplex: May 13 went off the board leaving July as the new front month. CNGOIC estimated China’s May soybean imports at 5.59 MMT versus 3.98 MMT in April. They forecast China's 2013 soybean crop at 12.3 MMT, down 3.9% on last year. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina's soyean harvest at 70% complete, pegging production there this year at 48.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 48.0 MMT. Oil World said that Brazil may ship a record volume of soybeans this month, and Argentina a 33 month high of 1.85 MMT. Some of that may be headed for the US. Michael Cordonnier said Brazilian soybeans take 52 days to get to China versus only 16 days for US beans. He estimated the 2012/13 Brazilian soybean crop at 81.5 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. The Argentine soybean crop was estimated at 50.0 MMT. He also estimated US 2013 soybean yields at 43.5-44.0 bu/acre. Oil World pegged China’s Jan–Apr soybean imports at 15.5 MMT versus 18.1 MMT a year ago. The NOPA April crush report comes out tomorrow. Trade estimates for that are an average 125.607 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 124.0-131.0 million. The March the crush was 137.08 million bushels and in April 2012 the crush was 131.708 million. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.24 1/2, up 3 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.14, down 5 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.14, up 4 1/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD461.00, up USD3.10; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.26, down 35 points.

Corn: The Midwest is forecast mainly dry today and tomorrow, but rains return by the weekend and into next week. The trade is anticipating good planting progress to be made in corn in the early part of the week. The University of Illinois said that corn planted after May 10th could suffer an 8% decline in yield potential, rising to 15% after May 20th and 25% after June 1st. China's CNGOIC estimated the corn crop there at a record 214 MMT, up 2.8% on last year and 2 MMT higher than the USDA. They have Chinese corn imports in 2013/14 at 5.0 MMT, which is 2 MMT less than the USDA, although up versus 2.7 MMT this season. Michael Cordonnier estimated US corn yields in 2013 at 155-156 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He placed the Brazilian corn crop at 76.0 MMT, up 1.0 MMT from his previous estimate. He said that about 41% of the Argentine corn crop has been harvested. The weekly US ethanol plant production comes out tomorrow. Last week's production came in at 843,000 barrels per day, down 14,000 bpd from the previous week. Production needs to come in at around 868,000 bpd to meet the USDA's target for the season. South Korea's NOFI bought 60 TMT of optional origin (probably South American) corn for September shipment. South Korea also bought 53 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for August shipment. They are said to have bought around 500 TMT of wheat and corn over the past week. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.06 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.52 1/2, down 3 cents.

Wheat: Fresh news was thin on the ground for wheat, which led to thin directionless trade. CNGOIC estimated China's 2013 wheat crop at a record 121.9 MMT, up 1.1% on last year. The wheat planted area was estimated at 24.1 million hectares, down 0.42% from a year ago. Japan are tendering for 147,620 MT of wheat for June–Aug shipment. The breakdown for that is 24,556 MT of western white US wheat, 29,200 MT dark northern spring US wheat, 30,966 MT of US HRW wheat, 34,632 MT of Canadian western red spring wheat and 28,266 MT of Australian white wheat. The Russian Ag Minister said that as of yesterday spring grain plantings are 41.3% complete, around unchanged from a year ago. The Russian government sold around 42 TMT of grain in today's tender offering, bringing the total sold since sales began in October to 3.15 MMT. Ukraine spring grains plantings are 94% complete. Needed rains are in forecast next week for both Russia and the Ukraine. Australia reverts to being dry for the next few days, but rains are back in the 4-7 day forecast. "With winter wheat harvest approaching, deep discounts on Black Sea new crop offers and signs the HRW has stabilized, the current price pattern and the general lack of interest favours lower wheat prices going forward," said Benson Quinn Commodities. "North Dakota producers have planted 26% of wheat up from just 7% a week ago. The slow pace of planting is still ahead of 2011, when just 15% of wheat was sown. Both corn and spring wheat planting would be stymied by rain later this week," said Martell Crop Projections. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.01 1/2, unchanged; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, also unchanged.