Nogger's Blog

15/05/13 -- Soycomplex: NOPA pegged the April US crush at 120.113 million bushels versus trade expectations of 125-126 million. That's down sharply from 137.08 million bushels in March and the April 2012 crush of 131.708 million. Talk of significant planting progress since the weekend is also a little bearish for new crop. Dry Midwest weather with only scattered showers for the next 3 days and the above normal temps that are in forecast for Saturday and Sunday should allow further progress to be made. There's talk of soybean plantings reaching 30-35% done in Monday night's USDA report versus 6% as of last Sunday. The USDA reported the sale of 171 TMT of new crop US beans to China. CNGOIC estimated China's 2013/14 soybean imports at 66 MMT, whilst that would be a record volume it's also 3 MMT less than the USDA forecast last week. Even taking into account those record Chinese purchases the USDA also had 2013/14 ending stocks at record highs too (75 MMT). Macquairie forecast Chinese imports a little lower than CNGOIC at 63-65 MMT, which potentially adds further to the projected record high carryout next season. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce said the country had imported 4.285 MMT of beans in April, and estimated May imports at just over 6 MMT. Brazilian port workers staged a one day strike in protest to changes in working conditions that now allow Santos, Paranagua and Rio de Janeiro port operations to load vessels 24 hours/day to cope with demand and clear the backlog of boats lined up waiting to get in. John Deere forecast the average 2013/14 US soybean price at USD11.75/bu versus a previous forecast of USD12.50/bu. Thailand bought 50 TMT of Argentine soymeal for Aug/Sept shipment. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for beans are 200-600,000 MT. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.12 3/4, down 2 cents; Sep 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.62 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD410.50, down USD1.30; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.35, down 41 points.

Corn: Weekly US ethanol production rose 14,000 barrels/day to an average of 857,000 bpd, according to the Energy Dept. However production needs to come in at around 868,000 bpd to meet the USDA's target for the season. Better weather this week should have allowed US farmers to make good progress with spring corn plantings. There's talk that US corn plantings on Sunday night could have reached 55-60% complete versus 28% done last Sunday. Japan bought 150 TMT of South African corn for immediate shipment. Taiwan too was said to have bought one cargo of South African corn, also for immediate shipment. It seems that this is business being done due to lack of availability in the US and shipping delays out of Brazil. John Deere forecast the average 2013/14 US corn price at USD5.00/bu versus a previous forecast of USD5.25/bu. ProAgro said that between July 1st and May 11th Ukraine had exported 20.94 MMT of grains including 6.56 MMT of wheat, 12.34 MMT of corn and 2.04 MMT of barley. Exports in the same period in 2011/12 were 18.69 MMT. Informa are due out on Friday with their latest US acreage estimates. Last month they had the US corn acreage estimated at 97.753 million acres versus the USDA's estimate of 97.3 million. The had the bean acreage estimated at 78.457 million acres versus the USDA's 77.1 million. Tomorrows weekly exports sales are expected between 200-400 TMT. Fund selling in corn was estimated at around 5,000 contracts on the day. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50 3/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.63 1/2, down 6 1/4 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market lacks enough of a story for now to push prices higher. Rain is in the forecast for parts of Russia and most of Ukraine. Reports out of the latter in particular suggest that winter crops are generally in pretty good shape. A USDA crop tour cited favourable conditions for wheat crops in Ukraine, noting that moisture reserves were near capacity this spring. John Deere cut their forecast for 2013/14 US wheat prices to USD6.90/bu versus a previous forecast of USD8.00/bu. South Korea bought 70 TMT of Australian wheat for Jul/Aug shipment. Jordan made no purchase on their 150,000 MT soft wheat tender. Informa come out with their US acreage estimates on Friday, last month they had the US all wheat area estimated at 56.074 million acres versus a USDA estimate of 56.4 million. Slow progress with spring wheat planting on the northern Plains continues to support Minneapolis wheat relative to Chicago and Kansas wheat. There's still a glimmer of hope for HRW wheat on the southern Plains though. "The top US wheat state of Kansas is expecting heavy rain this week that may improve yields. Just 9% of wheat is heading behind the 52% normally. If heavy rainfall materialises, it would improve conditions for grain filling, promoting plump kernels," said Martell Crop Projections. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 2-500 TMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.93 3/4, down 17 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.51 3/4, down 15 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.03 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents.