Nogger's Blog

13/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The market was sharply higher, particularly nearby, on ideas that plantings through to Sunday night maybe weren't as advanced as the 10% that the trade was forecasting. That proved to be the case after the close with the USDA saying nationally only 6% of the 2013 US soybean crop is in the ground. That is the slowest pace since 1984, and well below the 24% that is average for this time. Illinois has zero percent planted versus 41% this time last year and 19% for the 5-year average. Weekly soybean export inspections were 3.4 million bushels, low but in line with trade forecasts of 3-6 million. The US already has more than 99% of the USDA's projected 2012/13 soybean exports shipped or on the books already, and for meal it's over 100%. The prospect of the US having to import beans to keep going is very real, and acute old crop tightness will be accentuated by a late harvest. Trade expectations for the monthly NOPA crush report due on Wednesday are around 125-126 million bushels. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.21, up 32 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.19 1/4, up 20 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.09 3/4, up 8 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD457.90, up USD13.60; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.61, up 44 points.

Corn: Slow US planting progress and tight old crop stocks also sent the corn market sharply higher. After the close the USDA said that 28% of the US corn crop had been planted, slightly below the average trade guess of 29% and the slowest pace since 1984. The 5-year average is 65%. Weekly export inspections of 12.7 million bushels beat trade expectations of 6-10 million. Year to date shipments are 501.68 million bushels versus the USDA forecast of 750 million for the season. South Korea's NOFI are tendering for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for September shipment. South American origin is the favourite to win that tender. After a fairly dry weekend and start to the week in the Corn Belt, rains return Wednesday and Thursday and both the 6-10 day and 11-15 day forecasts are wetter. "A horizontal weather front is expected to develop on Wednesday from Nebraska to Ohio, keeping conditions unstable and ripe for showers. Hardly any movement is predicted for several days, into the weekend. Warm humid air from the Gulf of Mexico would circulate northward, fuelling scattered strong thunderstorms. At least one inch of rainfall is predicted this week in the corn belt, but potentially more," say Martell Crop Projections. May 13 Corn closed at USD7.18, up 30 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.55 1/2, up 19 1/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat remains a follower, dragged higher by corn. Weekly export inspections of 24 million bushels did offer some support though versus trade expectations of 15-19 million. That was up from 17.9 million a week ago and above the level required to hit the USDA's target for the season. After the close the USDA reported US winter wheat crop conditions as 32% good/excellent, the same as last week. Poor/very poor was also unchanged at 39%. Only 29% of the crop is headed versus 51% normally. Spring wheat planted advanced from 23% complete last week to 43% done this time round. The 5-year average for this time is 63% though. North Dakota is only 26% planted versus 92% this time last year and 53% normally. Spring wheat emergence is only 10% versus 63% last year and 32% for the 5-year average. The weather refuses to play ball. "The northern spring wheat forecast in North Dakota and Minnesota is very stormy later this week. A strong storm system would encroach in the Northern Plains Friday night and Saturday turning weather conditions stormy and wet. One-inch rains are possible with locally strong thunderstorms," say Martell Crop Projections. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.01 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.60 1/2, down 11 cents; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, unchanged.