Nogger's Blog

07/05/13 -- Soycomplex: It was a typical "Turnaround Tuesday" session. Nearby US soybean availability remains extremely tight, with most growers already sold out until new crop, a new crop that's going to be late. Yesterday's export inspections of 6.4 million bushels, whilst deemed "disappointing" and down from 8.9 million the week previously were still above the 5.3 million needed to reach the USDA estimate for the season. The cumulative shipment pace is 93% of the USDA export estimate compared with the 5 year average of 84.5%. News after last night's close that only 2% of the US soybean crop has been planted so far was supportive too. This week's anticipated "planting window" may see US farmers concentrate their efforts more on corn planting than trying to get some more soybeans in. As ever with soybeans it seems, the promise is always of jam tomorrow. AgroConsult estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian soybean planting area at 29.1 million hectares, up 1.2 million from this season. At this early stage they said that the 2013/14 Brazilian crop could reach a record 86.0 MMT next season. The trade is expecting the USDA to peg US soybean production in 2013 at around 3.4-3.5 billion bushels in it's first look into output for 2013/14 on Friday. That would be up around 14% on last year. Fund buying in soybeans was estimated at a net 3,000 contracts on the day. May 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.63 1/2, up 19 cents; Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.82 1/4, up 13 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.14 1/2, up 8 3/4 cents; May 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD416.30, up USD3.20; May 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.09, up 40 points.

Corn: The corn market was mixed, with the trade anticipating good planting progress to be made in the US this week. Yesterday's weekly export inspections of only 6.5 million bushels were well below the 19.3 million needed to hit the USDA estimate for the season. The cumulative shipment pace is now 59% of the USDA export estimate for the season versus the 5 year average of 65%, suggesting that the USDA may possibly revise down their current estimate for exports of 800 million bushels in 2012/13. South Korea's Nofi bought 69 TMT of optional origin corn, most likely of South American origin for September shipment. Michael Cordonnier estimated the Brazilian corn crop at a record 75.0 MMT, unchanged from his previous estimate. He pegged the Argentine corn crop at 24.0 MMT, also unchanged from previously. The USDA's FAS said that Ukraine will produce 22 MMT of corn this year, up 5% on last year, with exports in 2013/14 rising 13% to 14 MMT. The Ukraine Ministry said that the country exported 1.19 MMT of grains in April, of which 960 TMT was corn. That takes the cumulative grain export total for the season so far to 20.6 MMT, of which 11.8 MMT is corn. The weekly US ethanol plant production report comes out tomorrow. Last week's grind of 857,000 barrels/day was the highest since last June. Most plants are said to be running at full capacity, so another strong week is expected. In Friday's upcoming USDA WASDE report the trade is expecting US 2012/13 corn ending stocks to be raised slightly from the current 757 million bushels to around 762 million. The average production estimate for 2013/14 comes at 14.120 billion bushels, up 31% on 10.78 billion bushels last year. Fund buying on the day was estimated at a net 4,000 contracts. May 13 Corn closed at USD6.76 1/2, down 2 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.40, up 3 1/2 cents.

Wheat: Yesterday's weekly export inspections of 16.6 million bushels, were down sharply from 30.8 million the previous week and below the 24.7 million needed per week to reach the USDA export estimate for the season. The cumulative shipment pace is now sitting at 90% of the USDA estimate as compared with the 5-year average of 89% with only 4 weeks left in the marketing year. Turkey have tendered to sell 240 TMT of milling wheat for May-June shipment. The Iraq Trade Minister said that the country will lose 25-30% of their 2013 wheat crop due to floods in the south. Their annual wheat consumption is about 4.5 MMT and imports are normally around 3 MMT. Jordan bought 50 TMT of optional origin barley for August-September shipment, and tendered for 100 TMT of the same. Needed rain is said to be on the way for Western Australia. The east remains dry. Russia has sown 7% of it's spring wheat crop, rain is also wanted in the south of the country. The USDA's FAS estimated the Ukraine 2013 wheat crop at 22.6 MMT, up 43% on last year. They see exports rising 70% to 11 MMT. Wheat exports this season currently stand at 6.4 MMT. The USDA is likely to keep export demand unchanged in this Friday’s report it is thought, with no reason to change 2012/13 carryout either. They will also give their first estimate for 2013/14 production. The trade is estimating that at 2.060 billion bushels, down 9% from 2.269 in 2012/13. Funds were estimated as net buyers of around 2,000 CBOT wheat contracts on the day. May 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.99 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; May 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.69 3/4, up 1 cent; May 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.57 3/4, up 6 3/4 cents.