Chicago Mixed, Nearby Beans Very Tight
21/05/13 -- Soycomplex: It was the same old theme once again, old crop higher, new crop lower. Front month July rallied to an 8-month high as old crop remains extremely tight. Some US processors are apparently prepared to pay up to USD16/bu for cash beans. Paraguay’s exporters chamber, CAPECO, estimated their 2012/13 soybean crop at a record 9.0MMT versus the USDA estimate of 8.35 MMT. Customs data put China's April soybean imports at 3.98 MMT, down 18.59% from year ago. Jan/Apr imports are 15.47 MMT, down 14.77% from a year ago. Industry analysts though see May bean imports at 5.67 MMT, rising to a record 7.8-8.0 MMT in June. Import in June 2012 were 5.6 MMT. Safras e Mercado trimmed slightly Brazil’s 2012/13 soybean crop estimate to 82.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 82.5 MMT. The FT carried a report today saying that Argentine farmers have finally slowly begun selling soybeans "to cover their commitments". Agritrend say sales are now around 1.8-2.0 MMT/month and could rise to 3.5-4.0 MT/month in the months ahead. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.78 1/4, up 13 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.20 3/4, down 4 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.70, up USD3.40; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.48, up 28 points.
Corn: The corn market is doing the reverse of soybeans, with old crop losing ground versus new crop despite Monday night's USDA planting numbers suggesting that farmers planted 42 million acres of corn in the week through to Sunday night, a record area in just one week. Informa’s Senior Vice President forecast a 2013/14 corn futures price of somewhere between USD4-5/bu, Macquarie forecast the 2014 average corn price at USD4.75/bu. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013 corn exports at 18.5 MMT, up 8% from a year ago. They placed Argentina’s 2013 corn crop at a record 25.7 MMT. They estimated Brazil’s 2013 corn crop at 77.81 MMT (also a record). China's Ministry of Agriculture said as of May 17th the corn acreage in Heilongjiang (one of china’s biggest corn production areas) is at 101.43 million acres, up 2.54 million versus a year ago. Ag Processing Inc said that they will be permanently closing a Nebraska ethanol plant which had been idled since February due to poor margins. MARS estimated EU-27 corn yields at 6.87 MT/ha, up 16% on a year ago. US planting progress has been slowed by rain again this week in some parts of the Midwest. Argentina’s Ag Ministry estimated the 2013 harvest at 61% complete, 3% ahead of last year. China's Jan/April corn imports stand at 1.45 MMT, down 17.76% from a year ago. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.40, down 9 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.20 1/4, unchanged.
Wheat: The recent trend of Minneapolis widening the gap between itself and Chicago wheat continues on the back of slow spring wheat planting progress. It's not just the US where spring plantings are behind schedule. Russia’s Ag Ministry reported spring wheat has so far been planted on 4.5 million hectares, down 1.6 million from a year ago. The Canadian Wheat Board said western Canada’s spring grain planting is 45-50% complete, up from 15% a week ago, but still below average. Things are looking more promising in South America though. The FAO estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 11.0 MMT, up 22% from a year ago. They also estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 5.5 MMT, up 25% from a year ago. Rain is finally in the forecast for eastern Australia too. Jordan made no purchase (again) in their tender for 150 TMT of milling wheat. Algeria are tendering for 50 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for August shipment. Japan are tendering for 122,222 MT of milling wheat, of which 67,897 MT is specified to be of US origin. China's April wheat imports were 203,337 MT, down 30.69% from a year ago. That brings Jan/Apr wheat imports to 894,556 MT, down 36.75% from a year ago. Russia’s Grain Union increased Russia’s 2013/14 exportable grain surplus to 25.0 MMT from a previous estimate of 20.0 MMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.80 1/2, down 4 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.38 1/2, down 6 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.13 1/2, up 2 1/4 cents.
