Chicago Mixed, Still Some Confusion Over Final US Plantings
29/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The USDA announced the cancellation of 147 TMT of old crop soybeans sold to China. The trade is thinking that there may be more cancellations to come. Michael Cordonnier said that 1-2 million acres of planned US corn could go unplanted this year, and that around two thirds of that area could get switched into soybeans (with the rest being claimed on insurance as "prevent plant"). Oil World said China imported 15.5 MMT of beans between Jan-April, down 2.6 MMT from a year ago. At least some of that reduction will have been due to shipping delays out of Brazil. They also said that China would import 13.0 MMT of soybeans in May/June, up from 10.9 MMT in the same period a year ago. Paraguay's grains exporting chamber said that they harvested a record high 9.3 MMT of soybeans in 2012/13 versus 4.3 MMT a year ago. Some Paraguayan beans are supposed to have been sold to the US to cover old crop tightness. Citi Group forecast a new crop soybean price of USD11.50-11.75/bu, unchanged from their previous estimate and in line with Rabobank's forecast of last week. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.01 3/4, down 7 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.88 1/2, up 1/2 cent; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD444.30, up USD2.00; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.63, down 91 points.
Corn: New crop corn gained on ideas that persistent wet weather in the Midwest will see some planned corn acres switched into beans. Between the top 5 states for US corn acreage, a total of 6.4 million acres were unplanted as of Sunday. China's spring grain planting is said to be 91.6% complete on 1.229 billion hectares, up 0.8% from a year ago. Agroconsult estimated Brazil’s corn exports this year at 22.6 MMT versus 19.8 MMT in 2012. They estimated Brazil's corn ending stocks at 10.3 MMT. Brazil’s Ag Secretary said that the government may buy up to 1 MMT of domestic corn for stocks, CONAB said that the government may buy 2.0 MMT. South Korea's NOFI bought 55 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for September shipment in preference to corn. Taiwan are tendering for 23 TMT of corn for July shipment. The weekly ethanol production data report is delayed until tomorrow. The bulls will be hoping for a continuation of last week's 875,000 barrels/day. Citi Group forecast a new crop corn price of USD5.00/bu, unchanged from their previous forecast and similar to Rabobank's estimate of last week. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that growers there had planted a record 4.77 million hectares of corn, 2% more than the planned area and more than 9% up on last year. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.65, down 1 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.65 3/4, up 14 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Given that US wheat is significantly more expensive that Black Sea and other origins going forward then today's rally might have been more about short-covering. Analysts' opinions over Russian grain production this year vary quite widely, from anywhere between 85-100 MMT. Output in 2012 was 71.7 MMT. Russagrotrans today forecast grain production at 97.2-100 MMT (which would probably imply a wheat crop of around 57-58 MMT), with exports in 2013/14 rising to 23-25 MMT, including 17-18 MMT of wheat. They said that 2012/13 grain exports so far are 14.9 MMT. SovEcon are less bullish, estimating Russia’s 2013 wheat crop at 50.0 MMT, although that's still up by almost a third versus the 2012 crop of 38 MMT. They estimate Russia’s 2013/14 grain exportable surplus at 19.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 16.0 MMT. They have the Russian wheat exportable surplus at 13-15 MMT next season. SovEcon also estimated Russia’s 2012/13 grain ending stocks at 9.4 MMT, up 8% from their previous estimate. There's been some talk of late that last year's production was in fact higher than official estimates. Australia's 2013/14 wheat crop is estimated at 24-25 MMT versus 22 MMT this year. FC Stone estimated the 2013 Ukraine wheat crop at 19-21 MMT versus 15.8 MMT a year ago. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.02 3/4, up 9 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.47 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.15 3/4, up 9 1/4 cents.
