EU Wheat Mixed, Fresh News Scarce
28/05/13 -- EU grains closed mostly firmer on concerns that US planting delays had been extended over a wetter than anticipated holiday weekend.
Jul 13 London wheat finished the day GBP0.50tonne higher at GBP180.50/tonne, Nov 13 ended GBP0.70/tonne lower at GBP177.30/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat settled EUR1.00/tonne higher at EUR205.00/tonne.
Fresh news was relatively thin on the ground after US markets were slow to wake up having been closed yesterday along with the UK.
The trade is eagerly awaiting tonight's USDA planting progress report. Reuters report average trade expectations of 86% complete for corn and 42% done for soybeans. Last year’s plantings were at 100% for corn and 87% for soybeans at this point.
Wheat is lagging soybeans and corn in the US. Although winter wheat conditions there are far from ideal, they are pretty good in most places elsewhere around the world.
Australian plantings are expected to pick up markedly this wee after decent rains fell in the east of the country in the last 7 day. The Bureau of Meteorology is forecasting 15-25mm rains this week across NSW and most of Victoria and Queensland.
SovEcon forecast the Russian grain crop at 84-89 MMT versus 71.7 MMT in 2012/13 and 94.2 MMT in 2011/12. The Southern Volga Valley remains drier than normal.
Romanian wheat is the cheapest around at the moment after many areas picked up 20-30mm of rain last week. Prospects in Ukraine are also pretty good.
There continues to be talk of additional cargoes of US SRW sold to China, over and above what was announced on Friday, but there's been no official confirmation as yet.
CNGOIC suggested over the weekend that traders may have bought up to 650,000 MT of US wheat last week. All we have to go on so far are reports of 180,000 MT of SRW confirmed on Friday.
The trade looks tired. Unless we see fund money come back into the market soon for wheat then it looks like harvest pressure will take prices lower.
