CBOT Close - Friday
31/05/13 -- Soycomplex: The soybean market closed higher on the day and higher on the week. Weekly soybean export sales came in at net reduction of 108,000 MT for old crop and net sales of 756,600 MT for new crop versus trade expectations for sales of a combined 300-800 MT. China cancelled 207,500 MT of old crop but bought 587,000 MT of the new crop along with unknown destinations taking a further 128,000 MT. The USDA also reported 149,200 MT of old crop meal sales along with 40,900 MT of new crop. Even with a few old crop bean cancellations, this strong demand for meal will keep the domestic soybean crush high, hence also soybean disappearance. CNGOIC estimated China’s May bean imports at 5.6 MMT and pegged June imports at 7.0 MMT, both up sharply versus April imports of 3.98 MMT. The Buenos Aires Grains Exchange reported that the Argentine soybean harvest is 96.1% complete versus 93% a week ago and 92.8% a year ago. They have the Argentine bean crop estimated at 48.5 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.10, up 14 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.04 1/4, up 15 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD447.20, up USD6.40; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.38, down 20 points. For the week front month beans were 33 3/4 cents higher, with meal up USD19 whilst oil was down 86 points.
Corn: There was a modest 85,700 MT of old crop corn in the weekly export sales report, along with a more robust 789,600 MT of new crop which was mostly for China (483,000 MT) and unknown destinations (242,000 MT). Trade estimates were for net sales of a combined 500-800 TMT. The trade continues to debate the number or US corn acres that will go unplanted this year, with most estimates in the 1-3 million acres region versus the current USDA estimate of 97.3 million acres. The USDA will report on planting progress again on Monday night. Weekend weather forecasts have rain in them, but the early part of next week is seen dry. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange forecast the Argentine corn crop at 54.7% harvested versus 50.5% a week ago and 61.7% a year ago. Taiwan cancelled a tender to import US corn for Jul/Aug due to high prices. The IGC increased their forecast for world corn production in 2013/14 by 6 MMT to a record 945 MMT, US planting problems or not. That will help take ending stocks next season to a 5 year high of 145 MMT, they said. The US corn crop was estimated at 355 MMT this year, up a tad less than 30% on last year. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.62, up 7 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.67 1/4, up 4 1/2 cents. Jul 13 gained 4 3/4 cents on the week.
Wheat: As the 2012/13 US wheat marketing year draws to a close the USDA announced 35,900 MT of old crop sales along with 728,300 MT of new crop versus trade expectations for sales of a combined 300-700 TMT. South Korea cancelled a tender to import US wheat due to the discovery this week of GMO wheat growing in Oregon. Taiwan are also voicing concern, as indeed too are the EU. The IGC raised their 2013/14 world wheat production estimate by 2MMT, but increased consumption by a similar amount. They now have the global crop for the coming season at 682 MMT, an increase of 4.1% on this season. Their estimate for Russian wheat production was 52 MMT, up 38% on last year, although not the largest number in circulation. Canada will produce 29 MMT and the EU a crop of 138.2 MMT, 6% up on last year. Big increases are also on the cards for other major exporting nations such as Kazakhstan, Ukraine and Argentina. The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange left their estimate for the Argentine wheat planted area at 3.9 million hectares, up 8% on last year. That isn't as large an increase as others are forecasting. Last season wheat acres were cut at the expense of other crops such as barley. The BAGE see this year's barley area falling 19% to 1.27 million ha. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.05 1/2, up 6 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.51, up 5 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.20, up 4 1/2 cents. For the week CBOT wheat was up 7 cents, Kansas 5 1/2 cents higher and MGEX up 14 1/4 cents.
