Chicago Drops Ahead Of USDA Reports
10/06/13 -- Soycomplex: The soybean market closed sharply lower on positioning ahead of tonight's planting progress report and Wednesday's upcoming WASDE numbers from the USDA. Having risen to 7-month highs last week then I guess some consolidation was only to be expected. A warmer and drier forecast for the week ahead was also seen as bearish. Weekly soybean export inspections of just over 3 million bushels were in line with recent weeks and the 2-5 million expected. Chinese customs data showed China imported 20.57 MMT of beans in Jan–May, down 12.2% from a year ago. May imports were 5.1 MMT, down 3.4% from a year ago. Brazilian customs data shows that they exported a record high 7.95 MMT of beans in May, up from 7.15 MMT in April. Argentine farmers are expected to start a week long strike tomorrow. Brazil stevedores are threatening that they will strike in all ports on June 25th. The USDA reported after the close that 71% of the US soybean crop is now planted, in line with trade expectations even if below the 5-year average of 84%. Iowa is only 60% planted versus 95% normally. Emergence is also lagging as you might expect at 48% versus 67% normally. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.11 3/4, down 16 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.19, down 11 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD448.30, down USD4.20; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.07, down 46 points.
Corn: The corn market also posted double digit losses on promises of a drier and warmer week ahead. Customs data shows that Argentina exported a record 3.3 MMT of corn in May, up 0.5 MMT from April’s 2.8 MMT. China are said to have approved new varieties of Argentine corn and soybeans, paving the way for more imports from the South Americans. The Argentine Ag Secretary estimated the country's 2013 corn crop at 26-27 MMT and pegged exports at 18.0 MMT. South Korea's MFG are tendering for 140 TMT of US, South American, South African or Eastern European corn for October shipment. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated their 2013 corn crop at a record 27-28 MMT, up sharply from 20.9 MMT a year ago. They estimate exports at 14.0 MMT. Weekly US corn export inspections came in at 6.365 million bushels versus trade forecasts of 5-10 million. The USDA estimated corn plantings at 95% complete, towards the top end of the expected range, up from 91% last week and not too far off the 5-year average for this time of 98%. The percentage of the crop rated good/excellent was unchanged form a week ago at 63%. Iowa has 14% of it's crop already rated poor/very poor, with Illinois not far behind at 13% in the bottom two categories. Emergence is at 85% versus 92% normally. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50, down 16 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.46, down 12 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market also fell, although not as heavily as corn or beans. Weekly export inspections of 24.37 million bushels were above the expected 10-15 million. Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated their 2013/14 grain exports at 25-27 MMT versus 23 MMT this season, of that 9 MMT will be wheat (versus 7 MMT in 2012/13), they said. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated their 2013/14 grain exports at 18-20 MMT. This season's exports are expected to be around 15 MMT. Unlike wheat states on the northern US Plains, spring planting across the border in Canada is going well. Alberta was 97% complete as of Friday. The USDA estimated spring wheat plantings up from 80% last week to 87% complete as of Sunday night. Normal for this time would be 96%. Emergence is at 71% versus 89% for the 5-year average. Winter wheat harvesting was placed at 5% complete versus 16% for the 5-year average. Good/excellent crop ratings fell from 32% to 31%. The percentage of the crop rated poor/very poor is far higher at 42%. The top producing state of Kansas has 47% of its crop rated as poor/very poor, with second top state Oklahoma having 53% of its crop in the bottom two categories. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.89 3/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.26, down 9 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/2, down 8 1/4 cents.
