Chicago Mixed, Beans Up, Corn And Wheat Lower
24/06/13 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans shrugged off sharply lower overnight trade when the open outcry session began, posting strong nearby gains into the finish. Better than expected weekly export inspections of 7.827 million bushels were up from the 2.7 million the previous week, lending support. These have been running at only around 3-5 million in recent weeks. The trade was looking for US soybean plantings to come in around 95% done after the close, in fact the number was lower than that at 92% done (versus 95% for the 5-year average and 100% this time last year). Emergence was up from 66% a week ago to 81%, but lagging 89% for the 5-year average and 98% this time last year. Crop conditions were only up one point in the good/excellent category to 65% (but better than 53% a year ago), versus hopes for an improvement of up to 3 points. Iowa has the worst crop conditions at 12% poor/very poor. As soon as one report ends we start trading the next. The market is looking for US soybean stocks as of June 1st to come in just above 440 million bushels in Friday's quarterly stocks report. The market will also get the June planted acreage report, with the trade looking for the 2013 soybean acreage to come in at 77.9 million, up from the USDA's March estimate of 77.1 million. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.12, up 18 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.73 1/2, unchanged; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD451.00, up USD3.30; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 47.55, down 47 points.
Corn: Unlike soybeans, the corn market couldn't manage to recover from overnight weakness. Weekly export inspections of only 5.843 million bushels, versus 14.1 million the previous week, didn't help. Brazil's safrinha, or second crop corn, harvest has now reached the southern state of Parana - the country's second largest safrinha corn state after Mato Grosso. Harvesting is around 3% complete and production of around 10.8 MMT is expected, approximately 1 MMT more than a year ago. As with beans, a 2-3% jump in US good/excellent crop ratings was expected this week. As with beans, after the close the market didn't get it. The USDA said 65% of the US 2013 corn crop was in good/excellent condition, up only one point from a week ago, but better than 56% this time last year. They said that emergence was 96% versus 99%. Iowa has the worst ratings of a major corn state at 14% poor/very poor. Other states did show a marked improvement this week though, with Illinois up from 57% to 67% good/excellent. In Friday's USDA June 1st stocks report US corn stocks are expected to come in at 2.845 billion bushels. The US 2013 corn planted area is seen falling from the 97.3 million acres estimated in March to 95.3 million. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.53 1/4, down 8 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.46 1/2, down 9 3/4 cents. With the trade not getting the crop improvement it was looking for then a modest "Turnaround Tuesday" rebound might be on the cards for tomorrow.
Wheat: The wheat market bore the brunt of today's action, at least it did in Chicago and Kansas. There seems to still be enough concern around for Minneapolis spring wheat to support that market relative to the other two. News that US wheat was miles out in offers put up for an Iranian wheat tender that closed on Sunday added to the bearish tone. Weekly export inspections of 14.758 million bushels were down almost 7 million on last week too. Reports suggest that early US winter wheat yields are better than expected now that the harvest is moving into Kansas. The USDA said after the close that the winter wheat harvest was now 20% complete nationally, not as high as many expected, with the top state of Kansas only 8% done. The 5-year average for this time is 37% nationally and 39% in Kansas. This may have a negative impact on some double cropping with soybean plans. Winter wheat crop conditions good/excellent improved one point to 32%. Poor/very poor was unchanged at 43%. Spring wheat plantings are now 96% done versus 99% for the 5-year average, emergence is 90% versus 97% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions good/excellent rose 2 points to 70%. In Friday's USDA reports the trade is looking for June 1st wheat stocks of 745 million bushels and a US all wheat acreage of 55.9 million acres, versus 56.4 million in March. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.79, down 19 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.15 1/4, down 21 1/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.11 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents.
