Chicago Mixed Heading Into Stocks And Aceage Reports
27/06/13 -- Soycomplex: Once more it was the nearby months that put in the biggest gains in beans, with new crop modestly lower. Meal too finished sharply higher in front month Jul 13, but even the deferred positions manged to post modest gains. Oil was lower across the board. Weekly soybean export sales of 14,500 MT of old crop and 451,100 MT of new crop beat trade expectations of a combined 1-400 TMT. Meal sales were however a disappointment at 9,200 MT of old crop and just 100 MT of new crop. Soybean oil slumped to new 32-month lows with world palm oil stocks projected to hit record highs in 2013 - the 7th consecutive year of record stocks. MDA CropCast raised their 2013/14 US soybean production estimate by 1.18 MMT from a week ago to 86.34 MMT, a 13.6% increase on last year. That ups global production by a similar amount, a 7.6% rise on 2012/13. They increased EU and Canadian rapeseed production by a combined 250 TMT. Output in Europe is forecast up 3.4% this year, with Canadian production rising 10.6% on last year. World OSR output is forecast 5.3% higher this year. APK Inform estimated the Ukraine sunseed crop to rise 13% to 9.7 MMT in 2013, with soybean production up a similar percentage to 2.7 MMT and rapeseed output rising 50% to 1.8 MMT. The trade now waits on tomorrow's USDA reports. The trade estimate for US Jun 1st soybean stocks is anywhere from 413 million to 500 million bushels, with an average guess of 442 million. The US soybean planted area is seen falling within a range of 77.1-79.2 million acres, with an average guess of 77.9 million, up from the current estimate of 77.1 million. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.48 1/2, up 14 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.75 1/4, down 3/4 of a cent; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD479.60, up USD16.30; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 46.40, down 23 points.
Corn: The corn market also closed higher nearby and weaker further forward. Weekly export sales of were towards the top end of expectations at 336,700 MT of old crop and 153,600 MT, with the higher proportion of old crop sales supporting the nearby Jul 13 future. MDA CropCast raised their world 2013/14 corn crop estimate by 2.4 MMT from last week (taking production 12% up on last year) courtesy of a 1.1 MMT hike in Europe (where output is now forecast 11.3% up on last year) and a 1.3 MMT rise in the US (now seen up 30.5% vs. 2012). South Korea bought 55 TMT of Brazilian corn for October shipment in a tender. Another South Korean buyer is seeking 140,000 tonnes of optional origin corn for November arrival, that will probably also go the way of South America, or maybe to the Black Sea. Below average temperatures are called for over the weekend and for much of next week for most of the US Corn Belt. Corn used in last week’s US ethanol production report that came out yesterday is estimated at 92.90 million bushels. Usage needs to average 95.5 million bushels per week to meet this crop year’s USDA estimate of 4.6 billion bushels. Trade estimates for tomorrow's USDA acreage report see the planted area coming in at an average of 95.3 million acres, down 2 million from current forecast. The range of estimates is 96.9-94.2 million. As far as June 1st stocks are concerned the range of estimates is 2.725 billion to 2.952 billion bushels, with an average guess of around 2.845 billion. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.67 1/4, up 2 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.38 1/2, down 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market continues to slide even though weekly wheat export sales beat trade expectations of 3-600 TMT at 731,800 MT. Brazil was the main buyer. There's talk of some excellent 100-120 bu/acre US winter wheat yields coming out of Indiana, adding to the notion that this year's US crop may be a bit larger than expected. MDA CropCast cut their world wheat production estimate 200 TMT from last week due to acreage reductions in Canada, that still puts global output up 5.7% on last year though. That, combined with a 12% hike in world corn production in 2013/14, is weighing on the market. Also of course is the fact that the FSU is looking at a sharp rebound in wheat production this year, along with cheap Eastern European sellers like Romania, Hungary and even Serbia looking to undercut the market. That could depress things further, at least during the first quarter of 2013/14. Ukraine has harvested 3.5 MMT of new crop grains so far, with yields up 48% on last year. Russia has harvested a similar volume, 3.7 MMT, with overall yields said to be up 41%. It may well be that things won't look so great once the harvest progresses into Siberia later in the year though, dragging the overall yield figure lower. The trade is expecting the June 1st stocks number to come in at 745 million bushels, from within a range of estimates of 720-780 million. The all wheat area is forecast at 55.9 million acres, down from 56.44 in the March report. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.63 1/2, down 3 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.85 1/2, down 8 3/4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.86 1/2, down 12 1/2 cents.
