Nogger's Blog

19/06/13 -- Soycomplex: Informa Economics cut their 2013 US soybean planted area estimate from 78.286 million acres to 77.756 million. Although that's around 600,000 acres above the current USDA forecast it's not as large a switch as many have been expecting. Good planting progress should be made this week under warm and dry conditions, but trade ideas are now thinking that a sizable area may fall into the "prevent plant" insurance category. CNGOIC estimated China's June soybean imports at 6.9 MMT versus 5.1 MMT in May. The USDA attaché in China estimated China’s 2013/14 soybean crop at 12.0 MMT, the same as the USDA predict. He has imports in the 2012/13 marketing year at 59.0 MMT, half a million less than the USDA. South Korea bought 60 TMT of South American meal for October shipment. News of an outbreak of a deadly piglet virus spreading to 13 US states wants watching. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 350-600 TMT for beans and 100-200 TMT for meal. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.23, up 12 1/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.10 3/4, up 21 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD453.60, up USD1.80; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 49.35, up 54 points.

Corn: Informa cut their 2013 US corn planted area estimate from 96.827 million acres last month to 95.262 million, over 2 million acres below the USDA's forecast of 97.3 million. That was friendly to new crop. Supportive for old crop was the continuing tight domestic stocks situation with cash prices at the US farm gate said to be well in excess of USD7/bu. Weekly US ethanol production last week averaged 873,000 barrels/day, down 11,000 bpd from the previous week. CNGOIC said China has already bought 2.5 MMT of US corn this year for 2013/14 delivery. Mexico’s Ag Ministry estimated their 2013 corn crop at "above 20.0 MMT" versus a previous estimate of 22.45 MMT and the 2012 crop of 21.35 MMT. Farmers in Brazil's Mato Grosso state are 3% into harvesting their anticipated record safrinha corn crop. New crop corn, said to be of Ukraine origin, traded into South Korea at USD259 C&F yesterday, well below replacement from the US. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 200-450 TMT. The US swine virus outbreak (called PEDV) in piglets, said to be "spreading rapidly across the US" could be bearish for demand if it escalates further. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.82 1/4, up 9 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.70 1/2, up 20 cents.

Wheat: The wheat market followed corn higher, likely triggering some short-covering as prices in Chicago rose back above the USD7/bu mark for the first time in two weeks. Russia sold 34 TMT of intervention grain at auction, bringing the total sold so far to in excess of 3.5 MMT. Russian President Putin said that there would be no export embargo this year, that 2010 was essentially a "one off" and that the Russian market has proven in 2012/13 that it can regulate itself. As the old season draws to a close Ukraine's Ag Ministry estimated their 2012/13 grain exports at 23.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 24.4 MMT. They said that farmers there had harvested 300 TMT of grain so far in 2013/14 with an average yield of 2.3 MT/ha versus 1.6 MT/ha a year ago. Informa said US farmers will plant 11.791 million acres of spring wheat and 1.751 million acres of durum wheat this year. That's down 4% and 17.5% versus last year. It's also 610,000 acres lower than they projected the spring wheat area at last month and 150,000 acres down in the case of durum. Tomorrow's export sales are estimated at 300-650 TMT. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD7.07, up 19 1/2 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.39 3/4, up 20 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.13 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents.