Chicago Rallies Pre-USDA Report
11/06/13 -- Soycomplex: The volatility continues. This time it was old crop months that saw the biggest gains on ideas that the USDA might be forced to reduce last month's 2012/13 ending stocks estimate of 125 million bushels due to the strong crush and export demand. They've managed to resist doing so up to now, but soybean export commitments are over 99% of their projection for the season already. We shall know tomorrow. World 2012/13 ending stocks are estimated at 62 MMT, versus 62.5 MMT last month. For 2013/14 the trade is forecasting US ending stocks at 273 million bushels and world carryout at 74.2 MMT. Brazil's soybean crop is estimated at 83.3 MMT and Argentina's at 51.5 MMT. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.40 1/2, up 28 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.27, up 8 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD463.40, up USD15.10; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.04, down 3 points.
Corn: The corn market rose as US farmers struggle to get the last of the crop into the ground, and much of what has gone in already has been sown in less than ideal conditions. The trade is anticipating US 2012/13 ending stocks to be trimmed from 759 million bushels last month to an average 748 million in tomorrow's WASDE report. World carryout is seen little changed at 125.7 MMT versus 125.4 MMT last month. For 2013/14 the market is looking for US ending stocks of 1.758 billion bushels versus just over 2 billion in May. The world carryout next season is estimated at 150.5 MMT against 154.6 MMT last month. Argentina's corn crop is estimated at 25.8 MMT and Brazil's at 75.7 MMT. South Korea bought a total of 134,000 MT of corn in a tender today. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.59 1/2, up 9 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.50 3/4, up 4 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market gained some traction from the continued slow spring wheat planting progress and ideas that some of the USDA production estimates around the world may be too high. The USDA attache in India estimated the wheat crop there at 87 MMT, some 5 MMT less than the USDA themselves currently predict. Russia’s Ag Ministry estimated 2013 Russian wheat crop at 50-54 MMT versus 56 MMT from the USDA. ODA estimated France’s 2013 wheat crop at 36.0 MMT versus 38.2 MMT from the USDA. Trade estimates for tomorrow place the US all wheat crop at 2.026 billion bushels, from within a range of estimates of 1.872-2.082 billion, and 2012 production was 2.269 billion. US 202/13 ending stocks are forecast at 734 million bushels and those for 2013/14 at 634 million. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.96 3/4, up 7 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.30, up 4 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.15 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
