Chicago Stumbles On Bearish USDA Data
12/06/13 -- Soycomplex: The eagerly awaited WASDE report re-affirmed that the USDA will not cut US soybean ending stocks for 2012/13 any lower than 125 million bushels. They maintained that stance today by raising imports as well as increasing exports. Seeing as the old crop export target had already been met to all intents and purposes, this was a last resort option. US new crop plantings were left unchanged. So, old crop stocks remain tight and the new crop harvest is likely to be late. Sounds like a volatile summer spot market to me! World ending stocks came in at 61.21 MMT for 2012/13, and 73.69 MMT for 2013/14, in line with trade estimates of 62.12 MMT and 74.04 MMT. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.40 3/4, up 1/4 cent; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.14 1/4, down 12 3/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD461.40, down USD2.00; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 48.11, up 7 points.
Corn: The USDA shocked the trade by leaving their estimate for US corn plantings this year unchanged at 97.3 million acres. Many were expecting a 1-3 million acre cut, and they maybe still are. US yield potential this year was reduced slightly to 156.5 bu/acre, down 1.5 bu/acre from last month. Many others are in the 150-155 bu/acre camp. The USDA raised the old crop US ending stocks estimate by 10 million bushels to 769 million. The official 2013/14 US ending stocks estimate is now 1.949 billion bushels, with total production this year of just over 14 billion bushels (easily a record) versus most trade guesses in the 13.2-13.8 billion range. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.50 3/4, down 8 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.37 1/2, down 13 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market was dragged lower by the USDA's forecast for what would easily be a record US corn crop this year. The USDA estimated US ending stocks for 2012/13 at 746 million bushels and at 659 million for 2013/14. Trade guesses were 744 million and 655 million respectively. They did however cut the world wheat crop and ending stocks in 2013/14 by around 5 MMT each. Russia had their output forecast cut to 54 MMT this year, although that's still at the high end of trade estimates. Ukraine's output was also reduced along with a minor downwards tweak for Europe. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.83, down 13 3/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.16 1/2, down 13 1/2 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD8.06 1/4, down 9 1/2 cents.
