EU Wheat Mixed But Downwards Trend Remains

26/06/13 -- EU grains closed mixed with Jul 13 London wheat finishing the day GBP1.00/tonne firmer at GBP159.50/tonne, and with the more active new crop Nov 13 ending GBP0.35/tonne lower at GBP167.15/tonne. Nov 13 Paris wheat rose EUR0.50/tonne to close at EUR197.25/tonne.

The market is all over the place, but the downwards trend remains undeniably intact, pressured lower by the outlook for a sharply higher Black Sea wheat crop in 2013.

Russia exported just under 250 TMT of grains in the 1-20 June period, including 116 TMT of wheat and almost 100 TMT of corn, say the local Ag Ministry. That will rise to 1.8-2.0 MMT in July (versus 2.06 MMT in July 2012), according to Rusagrotrans, due to lower than normal carry-in stocks from 2012/13 and the absence of Egypt from the export market.

The 2013 grain harvest will be "not less than 97 MMT" they say, up 37% on the 70.9 MMT produced in 2012, they add. Russian 2013/14 grain exports "will exceed 23 MMT" versus 16.2 MMT in 2012/13 including 17 MMT of wheat (versus 11 MMT in 2012/13), 3.0 MMT of barley (2.3 MMT) and 2.5 MMT (1.9 MMT) of corn, they add.

They suggest that Russian wheat exports will be spread out more evenly over 2013/14 due to Egypt's lack of participation in the international markets, having a maximum potential of 3 MMT/month versus the record 3.8 MMT shipped abroad in September 2011.

The Ukraine Ministry say that early grain yields there are up 41% on last year. Winter barley yields of 2.48 MT/ha are up 39% versus this time a year ago.

Toepfer forecast the German wheat crop up 8.3% from 2012 at 24.18 MMT (and versus the 23.35 MMT that they predicted previously). They also placed the 2013 OSR crop up 19.3% at 5.75 MMT (versus 5.46 MMT previously).

French analysts Arvalis say that the winter wheat harvest in Aquitaine will begin around Jul 15-17, according to a report on Bloomberg. Crop development is 10-15 days late this year, they add.

Oil World forecast the world rapeseed crop up from 62.7 MMT in 2012 to a record 63.5 MMT in 2013. They have global sunflower production up sharply from 35.9 MMT to 38.9 MMT this year also.

The Australian Oilseeds Federation estimated the 2013/14 rapeseed crop Down Under at 3.3 MMT versus 3.9 MMT in 2012/13. Plantings are seen falling from 3.0 million ha to 2.3 million this year.

Nevertheless French rapeseed futures fell to lifetime contract lows for both the 2013 and 2014 crop years, with Aug 13 dipping to the lowest levels for a front month since October 2010.