Morning News

26/06/13 -- The overnight Globex grains are mixed, with beans down 6-9 cents, wheat up 2-3 cents and corn flat to up 4 cents on front month Jul 13.

Friday's upcoming USDA reports are what everyone is now waiting on. Unfortunately for us in Europe they won't be out until our markets are getting ready to close at 5pm London time, or 6pm if you have the misfortune to be French.

That means of course that we will have to wait until Monday morning to do much about it.

So, what else is fresh as we sit here twiddling our thumbs?

News out overnight from China suggests that 10 MMT of the wheat crop in Henan province, the largest wheat producer in the country responsible for around a quarter of the national crop, may have suffered rain damage during harvesting rendering it only suitable for feed usage.

That's around 8% of the Chinese wheat crop, suggesting that more imports of milling wheat may be required than the USDA's current projection of 3.5 MMT in 2013/14. The Chinese have been quite actively buying both French and US wheat of late as we know.

That might not be too bullish for Chinese corn demand however.

South Korea are tendering for 65 TMT of optional origin feed wheat for Oct/Nov shipment, excluding US and South American material. Presumably for GMO reasons on the former, and maybe shipping reliability (or lack of) in the case of the latter?

Toepfer estimate the German wheat crop up 8.3% on last year to 24.18 MMT, and up from an estimate of 23.35 MMT last month. They say that the German OSR crop will leap gazelle-like by 19.3% this year to 5.75 MMT, versus the 5.46 MMT that they forecast in May. That would be their second largest crop ever.

French analysts Arvalis say that the winter wheat harvest in Aquitaine will begin around Jul 15-17, according to a report on Bloomberg. Crop development is 10-15 days late this year, they add.

Oil World forecast the world rapeseed crop up from 62.7 MMT in 2012 to a record 63.5 MMT in 2013. They have global sunflower production up sharply from 35.9 MMT to 38.9 MMT this year also.

As the 2012/13 marketing year draws to a close Ukraine have exported 13.4 MMT of corn, 6.8 MMT of wheat and 2.12 MMT of barley this season, according to the Ukraine Ag Ministry.

US analysts Weather Services International say that most of Europe, with the exception of the Nordic region, will have a cooler than normal Jul/Sep period. I'm going to the Maldives so I don't give a shit.