Chicago Market Mostly Higher Heading Into Holiday
03/07/13 -- Soycomplex: For soybeans and meal it was the same old story of tight US old crop stocks and strong world demand pushing prices higher. As ever, the prospect of potentially bumper US production in the months ahead paints a somewhat less bullish picture going forward. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 US soybean crop at 3.36 billion bushels, up from a previous estimate of 3.34 billion. MDA CropCast estimated the crop at s 3.198 billion bushels, up 26 million bushels from last week "due to favourable moisture in much of the belt." Informa Economics raised their forecast to o 3.376 billion bushels, from 3.366 billion previously. They see yields at a near record 43.9 bu/acre this year. Lanworth also estimated the 2013/14 global soybean crop at 294.0 MMT versus the USDA/s 285.3 MMT forecast and versus 267.6 MMT in 2012/13. The USDA attache in Beijing forecast Chinese 2013/14 soybean imports at 67.5 MMT, a record and 8 MMT above imports in 2012/13, but 1.5 MMT lower than the USDA's official current estimate. The market will be closed tomorrow for Independence Day and reopen with the usual Globex overnight session Friday morning. Jul 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.83 1/2, up 10 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.50 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Jul 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD490.60, up USD3.60; Jul 13 Soybean Oil closed at 47.22, up 30 points.
Corn: Corn closed mixed heading into the holiday, with front month Jul 13 supported by the firm cash market. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 US corn yield at 158.9 bu/acre, with production at 13.9 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 13.7 billion. MDA CropCast were less bullish at 13.391 billion bushels, although that was up 51 million on last week. "The continued abundant rains in eastern areas will increase wetness concerns there, but corn conditions should remain favourable in the majority of the belt," they said. Informa estimated US corn yields at 160.0 bu/acre, with production coming in at 14.259 billion bushels, versus 14.078 billion previously due to an increase in planted area. Informa see this year's Brazilian corn crop at 80.1 MMT, but project output in 2013/14 falling to only 65.2 MMT due to reduced plantings. The USDA currently estimate Brazilian production at 72.0 MMT next year. A Brazil truckers strike continues. The strike ends tomorrow at 6 am local time. Weekly US ethanol production fell to 863,000 barrels/day last week from 885,000 bpd the previous week. Jul 13 Corn closed at USD6.78 1/4, up 5 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.02 3/4, unchanged. The USD5/bu level is seen as pivotal, can it hold as we get closer to a potential near 14 billion bushels record US corn crop becoming a reality?
Wheat: Wheat closed higher on all three exchanges. There may have been a bit of profit-taking and book squaring ahead of what many will be taking as a 4-day weekend. The market could therefore be pretty thin on Friday. News that China bought 360 TMT of US SRW wheat along with 300 TMT of Australian wheat was supportive. China's Grain Reserves Corporation (Sinograin) said it had suspended stockpiling wheat the country's top producing region of Henan. The winter wheat crop there was damaged by rain at harvest time and domestic prices have subsequently risen to 6-month highs. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 692.0 MMT versus 695.8 MMT from the USDA. They see Russian output at 51.1 MMT, down 2% from their previous estimate and versus 54.0 MMT from the USDA. ANZ Research said that they expect Indonesia’s 2013/14 wheat imports to rise 15% this season, they are said to have been eyeing Australian wheat lately. Informa cut their forecast for US all wheat production this year to 2.016 billion bushels, from their previous estimate of 2.057 billion and the USDA's 2.080 billion bushels. MDA CropCast raised their US wheat production estimate to 2.076 billion bushels, up 25 million bushels from last week due to improved yields in the Plains. Jul 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.57 3/4, up 8 1/4 cents; Jul 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.84, up 10 cents; Jul 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.61 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
