Nogger's Blog

29/07/13 -- Soycomplex: The recent capitulation of the front end Aug 13 beans and meal would appear to have finally flushed out some buying interest. The outlook for a bumper 2013 US soybean crop keeps the forwards under pressure though, as the weather forecast offers little in the way of threats for the time being, although the significantly cooler than normal temperatures across the Midwest may slow crop development a little. With much of the crop late planted as well, this could push the harvest back a bit more. Predictably, this already has one or two flicking back through the record books to find out when the earliest freeze has come in previous years after the mercury in Minnesota dropped into the low 40's over the weekend. The answer for that particular state is apparently Aug 24th. "Below-average temperatures are expected to continue this week in the Midwest. Mid 70's F for highs and 50's-low 60's F for the lows would be the rule. Unusual coolness is due to a blocking pattern in the high latitudes over Canada, diverting the jet stream south of its normal position. Waves of light-moderate showers are predicted across the Upper Midwest in an unstable, humid atmosphere. Scattered locations may receive up to 0.75 inch of rainfall. This would further improve corn and soybeans in dry areas of Iowa, southern Minnesota, Wisconsin and northern Illinois. However, with cool temperatures also expected to continue, crop development would fall further behind," said Martell Crop Projections. Looking a little further ahead AgRural said that given normal weather conditions Brazil could produce a record 89.1 MMT of soybeans in 2013/14. That's 9% up on this year, boosted by a 6% rise in planted area. Safras e Mercado concur, with an early prediction of 88.17 MMT versus 81.65 MMT in 2012/13. After the close the USDA cut US soybean good/excellent crop conditions one point to 63%, although that's well above only 29% a year ago. They said that 20% of the crop is setting pods versus 34% for the 5-year average, with 65% of the crop blooming compared to 74% normally. Weekly soybean export inspections came in at only 1.342 million bushels versus 3.916 million last week. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.67 1/2, up 17 3/4 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.20, down 8 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD438.90, up USD8.60; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.47, down 111 points and the lowest for a front month since September 2010.

Corn: Unlike soybeans, there was no rebound for old crop corn futures today. Trade talk suggests that a lot of old crop corn came onto the market last week, much more than most realised was still out there unsold on farm. This has prompted talk that maybe the USDA has under-estimated 2012/13 US corn ending stocks. As you would expect at this time of year, the US weather continues dominate proceedings, and that generally maintains a non threatening outlook although most would like it to be a bit warmer. "While the recent rainfall was beneficial for drought stressed corn and soybean, exceptional coolness has slowed down crop development. Maximum temperatures Saturday were only 60's F in Wisconsin, Minnesota and eastern Iowa and 15-20 F below average. Strong cooling is a set-back for corn and soybean development in the Upper Midwest especially due to severe planting delays in Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin and North Dakota," said Martell Crop Projections. "Showers developed overnight in Nebraska the driest of the main corn states. A trough of low pressure is developing. This would promote 1-1.5 inches of rainfall over the next 5 days. Kansas is expecting super-heavy rainfall, up to 4 inches. The wet forecast is significant, since both states presently are severely dry. Kansas corn deteriorated to only 31% good-excellent in the July 21 report from the USDA. Nebraska, the 3rd biggest US corn state, declined to 66% good-excellent, down from 78% on July 1," they added. After the close the USDA left US corn crop conditions completely unchanged from last week, with 63% of the crop rated good/excellent. There were some inter-state changes, Kansas good/excellent rose to 33%, but Nebraska fell to 63%. The USDA said that 72% of the crop is silking, not too far below the 5-year average of 75%, with 8% of the crop at the dough stage compared to 17% normally. Weekly export inspections came in at 11.087 million bushels versus 9.958 million the previous week. Safras e Mercado estimated the Brazilian 2013/14 corn crop at 77.57 MMT, down 5.4% on 82.0 MMT this year. The Ukraine Weather Centre estimated their corn crop as being "at least" 25 MMT versus 20.9 MMT in 2012/13. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.89 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.73 1/4, down 2 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat was narrowly mixed on all three exchanges. The Russian Ag Ministry cut their grain production forecast for 2013 from 95 MMT to 90-94 MMT. The wheat harvest there is 36% complete at 27.8 MMT. Trade estimates for final Russian wheat production vary widely, from 45 MMT at the low end to 54 MMT at the upper end of the scale from the frequently optimistic USDA. Weekly export inspections were strong at 25.363 million bushels versus 24.185 million last week. That takes the cumulative total for the current marketing year to 186.245 million bushels versus only 146.981 million a year ago. Iraq are tendering for a nominal 50 TMT of wheat on the international market, but are generally expected to buy more. Iraq normally imports around 3 MMT of wheat annually, most of which is high quality and high protein hard wheat from Australia, Germany, and the US. Jordan are also tendering for 100 TMT of optional origin wheat. Following the recent GMO scare, there's talk that Japan may resume buying US western white wheat as early as this week or next week. They usually tender on Tuesdays and generally buy around 800 TMT of western white wheat a year. China are said to be continuing to enquire and/or be buying US HRW wheat. Local reports suggest that Brazil may have lost 5% of it's wheat crop due to frost last week. In the state of Parana, which produces around half of the national wheat crop, there was a frost on four nights in a row last week. Around half the crop there was/is said to be at the flowering or grain formation stage. There's talk of wheat being in oversold territory, leaving it susceptible to a short-covering bounce. Friday's Commitment of Traders report shows trend-following funds holding a net short position of 81,655 contracts in CBOT wheat, up 14,753 on the week. The record net short position held by these traders is 97,259 contracts. After the close the USDA estimated US winter wheat harvesting at 81%, up from 75% a week ago, and almost in line with the 5-year average of 82% complete. Spring wheat headed advanced from 85% last week to 94%, again almost in line with "normal" of 95%. Spring wheat crop conditions good/excellent were unchanged at 68%, although there was a shift of 2 points from excellent into good. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.51 1/2, up 1 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.90 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.34 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents.