Chicago Mixed, Soybeans Up, Corn And Wheat Lower
15/07/13 -- Soycomplex: The market began the week with new front month Aug 13 beans putting back in some of the nearby premium that the expiry of the Jul 13 contract took away on Friday. The June NOPA crush number of 119.1 million bushels was supportive, although down 3.5 million on May it was above the 115-117m that the trade was expecting. Only 105m/month was needed to hit the USDA target for domestic demand for the season. Weekly export inspections of 3.670 million bushels were up from 2.481 million the previous week. That's hardly spectacular, but nor do they need to be given the frenetic early season pace of US exports. After the close the USDA cut good/excellent US soybean crop ratings by two percentage points to 65%. Poor/very poor was up one point to 8%. Of the major states Iowa is perhaps displaying the worst crop conditions at 12% poor/very poor. The late planted crop is only 26% at the blooming stage versus 40% normally and 63% a year ago. "The Medium Range forecast centre, a branch of the US National Weather Service, predicts a drier week ahead in the US heartland. They see a more persistent ridge of high pressure warding off heavy showers in Nebraska, Iowa, Kansas, Illinois and Missouri," say Martell Crop Projections. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD14.52 1/2, up 23 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.62, up 4 3/4 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD451.20, up USD8.30; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 45.81, down 41 points. The latter was the lowest close for a front month in Soybean oil since October 2010 - 33 months ago.
Corn: The corn market fell, despite the USDA reporting the sale of 120 TMT of new crop US corn to unknown, possibly China. Weekly export inspections of 16.280 million bushels were up from 8.20 million the previous week, although last week was a particularly uninspiring week. Cumulative inspections for the marketing year now total 606 million bushels, leaving a weekly average of 13.4 million now needed to hit the USDA target for the season. All eyes are now on how the 2013 US corn crop is developing. Slowly is the answer to that. The USDA said that only 16% of the crop is at the silking stage after the close, well below 35% for the 5-year average and 67% this time last year. As with soybeans, good/excellent crop conditions also fell two percentage points from last week to 66% and poor/very poor rose one point to 9%. China’s Q2 GDP came in at 7.5% overnight, down versus Q1 but in line with economists’ estimates. Last week's large Chinese sales are supportive for corn, but the spectre of a potential 14 billion bushel crop if the weather plays ball isn't. Weather across the next few weeks will now be critical, with a large percentage of the US crop all likely to be pollinating at the same time. Current weather forecasts are relatively non-threatening with Midwest temperatures mostly in the mid-80 to 90′s this week. The occasional mid-90 level may be reached in areas of NE and KS. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.36 1/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD5.03 3/4, down 5 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed lower on all three exchanges, with corn offering little support Weekly export inspections of 24.45 million bushels were respectable, even if down a little on last week's 28.837 million. Western Australia reportedly got some decent rain over the weekend. Harvesting in Ukraine and Russia is rumbling on, with early yields well up on year ago levels so far. The Russian Ministry pegged 2012/13 grain exports at 15.72 MMT, down 42% on a year previously. They say 2012/13 ending stocks were 7.2 MMT and, for now, are standing by their estimate of production of 95 MMT this season. With consumption in 2013/14 estimated at 70.1 MMT and exports of 20 MT they see carryout at the end of this season rising to 12.8 MMT. The Ukraine grain harvest is now said to be at 18.8 MMT, including 14.6 MMT of winter wheat. Yields on the latter are said to be averaging 3.11 MT/ha, up 32% versus 2.35 MT/ha this time last year. The US winter wheat harvest is progressing slowly but surely, up ten points from last week to 67% complete, versus 71% for the 5-year average. Ohio is only 28% done versus 82% normally, whilst South Dakota hasn't even started compared to 76% cut this time last year. Spring wheat headed is 71% versus 73% normally. Spring wheat crop conditions fell two points in the good/excellent category to 70%. Traders now say that Algeria's wheat purchase of last week, originally reported as 4-500 TMT, was probably more like 575 TMT. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.69 3/4, down 11 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.01 1/2, down 7 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.54 3/4, down 11 3/4 cents.
