Chicago Soybeans And Meal Press On To New Highs, Oil Slumps
22/07/13 -- Soycomplex: It was a continuation of the same old theme, with nearby months posting strong gains on strong demand, tight US stocks and a likely late harvest further exacerbating the front end squeeze. Aug 13 meal closed limit up bid, with front month beans gaining almost 30 cents. This was a lifetime contract high for Aug 13 meal, whilst Aug 13 soybean oil closed at a new lowest close for a front month since October 2010. Everybody wants meal and nobody wants oil it would seem. The USDA continue to stand behind their "line in the sand" of 2012/13 US soybean ending stocks of 125 million bushels, but most believe that things are/will be far tighter than that. "One private analyst lowered its 12/13 soybean ending stocks estimate over the weekend to 95 to 105 million bushels due to higher than expected June NOPA crush," said Benson Quinn Commodities. The same analyst cut 2013/14 US soybean ending stocks to 240 million bushels versus the USDA's current 295 million estimate. Oil World estimated the global 2013/14 soybean crop at 284.22 MMT versus 265.02 MMT in 2012/13 and 285.89 MMT from the USDA. They see the US crop at 92.0 MMT versus 82.0 MMT last year and 93.0 MMT from the USDA. Brazilian output is pegged at 84.0 MMT (vs. 81.5 MMT and 85.0 MMT respectively) with the Argentine crop at 52.3 MMT (vs. 48.5 MMT and 53.5 MMT). Weekly soybean export inspections came in at 2.847 million bushels, low but in line with expectations. After the close the USDA cut US soybean crop conditions good to excellent by 1% from a week ago to 64%. They have blooming at 46% versus 26% a week ago and 59% fro the 5-year average. The proportion of the crop setting pods is 8% versus 33% a year ago and 19% for the 5-year average. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD15.20 1/4, up 29 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.88 1/2, up 14 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD502.40, up the daily USD20.00 limit; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 45.41, down 9 points.
Corn: Weekly export inspections came in at 8.867 million bushels, down sharply from 16.338 million a week ago and below the 10-16 million that was expected. US weather offers a generally non threatening outlook for the rest of the week. Safras e Mercado estimated Brazil’s second corn crop at 45.2 MMT, down from a previous forecast of 45.8 MMT, although well up on 38.0 MMT in 2012 and still a record. Japan were said to have bought 300 TMT of Ukraine (120 TMT) and Brazil corn (180 TMT) for Oct/Dec shipment in preference to US origin. They have been gradually decreasing the volume of corn used in feed over the past year/18 months and also moving away from more expensive US corn, giving a greater proportion of their business to South America and the Black Sea. Vietnam bought 20 TMT of South American corn for Nov/Dec shipment. The Brazilian vessel line up shows 3.5 MMT of Brazilian corn waiting to be shipped in August. Analysts expect 2013 Brazilian corn exports to be 15-17 MMT. In the 1st half of 2013 Brazil exported 8.4 MMT of corn. The USDA's FAS in Russia estimated their 2013 corn crop at 9.0 MMT versus 8.21 MMT last year, with exports seen rising from 2.0 MMT in 2012/13 to 2.5 MMT in 2013/14. The EU Commission's MARS unit forecast corn yields in the EU at 7.22 MT/ha, up from the 7.13 MT/ha forecast in June and 18.9% higher than in 2012. A Reuters poll of 7 analysts estimated South Africa’s 2013 corn crop at 11.134 MMT versus 11.83 MMT in 2012. After the close the USDA cut good/excellent US corn crop ratings by 3 percentage points from last week to 63%. The proportion of the crop silking (pollinating) was raised to 43% from 16% a week ago, but down on 56% for the 5-year average. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD5.40 3/4, down 3 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.98, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed around 3-4 cents lower on all three exchanges. IKAR said Russia had exported 700 TMT of wheat between July 1-20th and raised their estimate for full month exports from 1.0 MMT to 1.2 MMT. Iraq bought 50 TMT of Australian wheat for August shipment, at prices said to be well above offers out of the Black Sea, for quality reasons. They will likely not be so fussy next time round. Algeria are tendering for a nominal 50 TMT of optional origin milling wheat for Nov shipment. They bought 575 TMT in their last tender around a week ago. The USDA's FAS in Russia estimated wheat production there this year at 53.0 MMT, up sharply from 37.72 MMT last year, although 1 MMT below the current official USDA forecast. He sees 2013/14 Russian wheat exports rising from 11.2 MMT in 2012/13 to 17.0 MMT this season. The USDA's FAS in Kazakhstan cut his forecast for wheat production there from 14.5 MMT to 14.0 MMT citing drought in some parts of the country and a lower planted area than previously thought. The early wheat harvest is underway in the Kazakh region of Almaty, with early yields said to be 2.5 MT/ha versus only 1.0 MT/ha last year. Ukraine's Ag Ministry said that the country had exported 640 TMT of grains so far this month and will ship 24.82 MMT in the full 2013/14 season, other estimates are as high as 29 MMT (record). Weekly export inspections came in at 23.136 million bushels, down slightly on 24.459 million the previous week and at the low end of expectations. After the close the USDA said that the US winter wheat harvest was 75% complete versus 67% a week ago and 76% for the 5-year average. Spring wheat crop conditions are 68% good to excellent, down 2% from a week ago. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.59 3/4, down 4 3/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.02, down 3 1/4 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.46 3/4, down 3 3/4 cents.
