Chicago Corn Slides To Lowest Since Late 2010
06/08/13 -- Soycomplex: The USDA announced the sale of 110,000 MT of new crop soybeans to China in some fairly routine business. Remember that China need to buy almost five cargoes of beans every working day of the week if they are to import the 69 MMT in 2013/14 that the USDA currently has them down to need. Private crop forecasts are coming in thick and fast, on an almost daily basis ahead of the USDA's own report due on Monday, and for soybeans they are generally a little lower than the USDA project. Linn Group today estimated the 2013 US soybean crop at 3.226 billion bushels, with yields averaging 42.6 bu/acre. Informa went for 3.266 billion bushels yesterday, Doane Advisory Services said 3.333 billion. A Bloomberg survey went for production at 3.357 billion on yields of 43.7 bu/acre. The USDA are currently at 3.42 billion bushels and 44.5 bu/acre. Celeres estimated Brazil's 2013/14 soybean crop at 85.2 MMT, a near 5% increase on this season's record crop. They said that producers have only forward sold around 35% of next year's crop versus 50% this time a year ago. Goldman Sachs are now projecting soybean prices to fall to USD10.50/bushel within 12 months, versus a previous estimate of USD11.00/bushel. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.24 1/4, down 5 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.67 1/4, down 16 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD396.00, down USD6.60; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.11, down 61 points.
Corn: Ideas that the US 2013 corn crop is getting bigger saw new crop Dec 13 slide to its lowest level since late 2010. Lanworth Inc are on day two of a Midwest crop tour. Today they surveyed fields in west central Iowa and apparently found an average corn yield of 207.0 bu/acre. The range of corn yields were said to be 167.0-232.0 bu/acre versus the 5-year average for the state of 169.8 bu/acre. Linn Group estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 14.074 billion bushels and 2013 corn yields at 157.9 bu/acre. Informa went for 14.14 billion bushels, Doane Advisory Services yesterday estimated the crop at 14.269 billion bushels. A Bloomberg survey went for production of 14.036 billion bushels on yields of 158 bu/acre. Goldman Sachs increased their yield estimate from 158 bu/acre to 161 bu/acre. The USDA are currently at 13.95 billion and 156.5 bu/acre. Celeres said that Brazil will produce a record corn crop for the third year in a row in 2013/14, estimating production at 85.1 MMT, coincidentally almost identical to their soybean output number. Taiwan announced a tender for 60,000 MTof optional origin corn for Oct/Nov shipment. Goldman Sachs lowered their 12 month US corn price forecast to USD4.25/bushel versus a previous forecast of USD4.75/bushel. China are said to have approved its first shipment of Argentine GMO corn. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.72 1/4, up 3 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.59 1/4, down 1 1/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market closed higher, rebounding from yesterday's lows, on bargain hunting and a pick up in global demand. Egypt bought 120 TMT of Ukraine/Romanian wheat. Iraq picked up 200 TMT of wheat - 150 TMT from Australia and 50 TMT from Canada. Jordan bought 100 TMT of optional origin wheat for Jan shipment. Bangladesh seek 50 TMT of optional origin wheat for Aug/Sept shipment in a tender that closes on Aug 22. Tunisia are tendering for 75 TMT of optional origin feed barley for Sept/Oct shipment. Note though that none of this business is likely to be going America's way. Linn Group estimated the 2013 US total wheat crop at 2.025 billion bushels, including total winter wheat at 1.51 billion, HRW wheat at 770 million, SRW wheat at 535 million and western white wheat at 205 million. Standard Chartered Bank came out with a 3rd quarter wheat price forecast of USD6.60/bushel, with a 4th quarter wheat price forecast of USD6.80/bushel. Their 2013 average wheat price forecast was cut to USD6.93/bushel versus a previous forecast of USD7.24/bushel. China remains bone dry and hot, and winter wheat planting there would normally begin next month. The heat wave there is expected to expand into the North China Plain over the next 2 weeks. Unlike the North Africa and the Middle East, the US is well placed to service any extra demand from that direction. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.50 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.02, up 6 1/2 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.39 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents.
