Chicago Market Manages Some Consolidation Following Recent Slide
08/08/13 -- Soycomplex: MDA CropCast estimated the 2013 US soybean crop at 3.215 billion bushels, up 13 million bushels from last week due to favourable conditions in much of the belt. "Rains were abundant across the southwestern Midwest, east central Plains, and northeastern Delta this past week," they said. Customs data shows that China imported a record 7.2 MMT of beans in July versus 6.93 MMT in June and up 22.7% from July 2012. Even so, China's 2013 Jan/Jul imports of 34.7 MMT are actually down slightly versus a year ago. The Ministry of Commerce (MOC) estimated China’s August bean imports at 5.309 MMT. CNGOIC estimated China’s August bean imports at 6.04 MMT, and China’s 2013/14 bean imports at a record 66.0 MMT, although 3 MMT less than the USDA's current forecast. The Chinese government didn't have an overwhelming response in today's soybean auction, selling only 18% (less than 90 TMT) of the 500 TMT on offer. Maybe the local trade considers these beans as being too old? FC Stone estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 bean crop at a record 83.28-85.57 MMT. Local estimates are in the 85-86 MMT region. Weekly US soybean export sales topped expectations of 400-800 TMT at 79,400 MT of old crop and 1,017,600 MT of new crop. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.55 3/4, up 28 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.84 1/4, up 18 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD422.50, up USD22.20; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.65, up one point.
Corn: Corn consolidated a little, following new crop Dec 13's slide to the lowest level for the contract since late 2010. With a USDA report coming up on Monday and funds holding a net short in corn then maybe that isn't too surprising and could be considered prudent given the USDA's capacity to spring a surprise of their own on a regular basis. Weekly export sales were 290,100 MT of old crop along with 220,900 MT of new crop, towards the lower end versus trade expectations of a combined 475-875 TMT and well below last week's 1,225,200 MT. Lanworth come out tomorrow with their final results from their Midwest crop tour. The vibe is that they could peg potential yields on the high side. MDA CropCast estimated the 2013 US corn crop at 13.825 billion bushels, up 122 million bushels from last week "due to favourable conditions in much of the region." The trade is expecting the USDA to come out with a number close to 14 billion bushels on Monday, versus 13.95 billion last month. French corn exports to non-EU destinations rose 24% to 524 TMT in 2012/13, the highest volume since the late 1990's, according to customs data. Total corn exports however were down 5% to 6.4 MMT as the rest of Europe looked to the Black Sea for cheaper supplies. CONAB estimated Brazil’s 2012/13 corn crop at 80.3 MMT versus a previous estimate of 79.1 MMT and only 77 MMT from the USDA. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.73 1/2, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.59 3/4, up 1 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market was mixed with little fresh news. Weekly export sales of 726,200 MT were at the top end of expectations of 500-700 TMT. The biggest buyer was Brazil (169,500 MT, including 27,000 MT switched from unknown destinations). China also featured taking 60,800 MT. Rabobank estimated Australia’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 24.15 MMT and Australia’s 2013/14 barley crop at 7.5 MMT. ANZ Banking Group only yesterday estimated the Australian wheat crop at 26.5 MMT. The USDA are currently at 25.5 MMT. MDA CropCast today released an estimate of 22.78 MMT, so there seems to be a fairly wide degree of uncertainty there at the moment. Conab estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 5.6 MMT versus the USDA estimate of 5.0 MMT. The Rosario Grains Exchange estimated Argentina’s 2013/14 wheat area at 3.8 million hectares versus 3.6 million a year ago and the 3.9 million forecast by the Buenos Aires Grain Exchange. Russia was said to have exported only 1.2 MMT of wheat in the first half of 2013 versus 6.1 MMT a year previously. Exports are expected to pick up sharply in the second half of the year. Rusagrotrans pegged July grain exports at 2.4 MMT, rising to 3.0 MMT in August versus 2.06 MMT and 2.76 MMT respectively in 2012. The Indian government are said to have approved a further 2 MMT of wheat for export. However their base price of USD300/tonne looks too ambitious relative to current world prices. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.41 1/4, down 2 1/4 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.02, up 3 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.33 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.
