Nogger's Blog

21/08/13 -- Soycomplex: The market finished with decent gains, led by the front end, although deferred positions closed well off the intra-day highs. A Stats Canada 2013 rapeseed production forecast of 14.7 MMT, whist up 11.5% on last year, was well below the 15.5 MMT that the trade was expecting. A drier and warmer outlook to the latest US weather forecasts added support. The US Soybean Export Council estimated the 2013/14 US soybean crop at above 90.0 MMT (3.307 billion bushels) versus the current USDA estimate of 88.6 MMT (3.255 billion bushels). They estimated US soybean yields at 44.0 bu/acre or higher versus the USDA's 42.6 bu/acre. Chinese customs data puts their soybean imports in July at 7.197 MMT up 22.68% from a year ago. Of that total 5.437 MMT came from Brazil (up 43% from a year ago), 1.258 MMT from Argentina (up 13.64%) and 500 TMT from Uruguay (up 71%). China's Jan/Jul soybean imports were 34.687 MMT down 0.66% from a year ago. Of that 18.788 MMT came from Brazil (up 9.97% from a year ago), 2.175 MMT from Argentina (down 8.12%) and 12.523 MMT from the US (down 16.48%). China are to auction another 500 TMT of beans from state reserves tomorrow. Day two of the Pro Farmer crop tour moved on to NE and IN. In Nebraska they found a soybean pod count of 1,138.9 pods per 3 foot square plot versus 894.4 pods a year ago, but slightly below the 3 year average of 1,162.4 pods. In Indiana they came up with a soybean pod count of 1,185.14 pods versus 1,033.24 pods a year ago and the 3 year average of 1,136.48 pods. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report for soybeans are 1.3-1.7 MMT. Sep 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.33, up 23 3/4 cents; Nov Soybeans closed at USD13.04, up 13 1/2 cents; Sep 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD421.50, up USD7.70; Sep 13 Soybean Oil closed at 42.82, down 6 points.

Corn: The corn market closed higher, also led by the front end, on weather concerns. "Drought is shifting east, now affecting Indiana and Ohio more strongly while dry conditions have eased in Nebraska and western Iowa," said Martell Crop Projections. "Iowa corn and soybeans have received light-moderate rains in August. Conditions have remained rather steady. However, prospects are bad with only 47-48% corn and soybeans making the good-excellent grade. Crop conditions have deteriorated sharply in Illinois, the second biggest corn and soybean state. Hardly any rain has occurred the past 3-4 weeks," they add. The Pro Farmer crop tour estimated the average corn yield in Nebraska at 154.9 bu/acre versus 131.8 bu/acre a year ago and the 3 year average of 147.9 bu/acre. In Indiana they went for an average corn yield of 167.36 bu/acre versus 113.25 bu/acre a year ago and a 3 year average of 141.14 bu/acre. Tomorrow is the last day of the tour and scouts will be in Iowa and Illinois. Chinese customs data puts their Jan/Jul corn imports at 1.595 MMT, down 48.99% from a year ago. Malaysia bought 45 TMT of Ukrainian corn for Oct shipment at a substantial discount to US origin material. Stats Canada forecast the corn crop there this year at 13.075 MMT, up slightly on 12.954 MMT last year. The Energy Dept pegged US ethanol production down 13,000 barrels/day from last week to 844,000 bpd. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 700 TMT to 1 MMT. Last week’s sales were 836,100 MT of new crop, while old crop sales were a negative 59,100 MT. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.98, up 14 1/4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.83 1/4, up 7 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed mixed, lower in Minneapolis and a bit higher in Chicago and Kansas. Stats Canada came out with an all wheat production estimate of 30.6 MMT, a 22 year high. China’s Ministry of Agriculture said China has harvested 70% of their grain crop and expects 2013 production to hit another record high for the 10th straight year, despite drought. But then again what else would you expect them to say? Chinese customs data shows that they imported 308,744 MT of wheat in July, up 22.73% from a year ago. Jan/Jul wheat imports however are 1.71 MMT, down 30.07% from a year ago. Overnight the Chinese bought one cargo (55 TMT) of Australian wheat for Dec shipment. They have bought around 2.2 MMT of Australian new crop wheat so far this season, along with around 3.7 MMT of US wheat. CBH Group estimated Western Australia’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 7.5 MMT versus 6.0 MMT a year ago. They have Western Australia’s 2013/14 wheat exports at 7.0 MMT out of total Australian 2013/14 wheat exports of 18.0 MMT. They see the national crop at 25-25.5 MMT versus ABARES estimate of 25.399 MMT and the USDA's 25.5 MMT. Japan bought 38,860 MT of feed wheat via a SBS tender for Nov shipment. They are also in for a further 120 TMT of feed wheat and 200 TMT of feed barley via a SBS tender for Nov shipment. Russia’s Ag Ministry said as of Aug 20th Russia has harvested 53.3 MMT of grain versus 47.7 MMT a year ago. Average yields are 2.58 MT/ha versus 1.98 MT/ha a year ago. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 450-550 TMT. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.38 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.99 1/2, up 2 3/4 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.28 3/4, down 6 1/4 cents.