Nogger's Blog

07/08/13 -- Soycomplex: The USDA reported the sale of 220,000 MT of soybeans to China for the 2013/14 marketing year. The weak dollar was supportive for US export hopes. Brazilian firm Agroconsult estimated the 2013/14 soybean crop there at a record 86 MMT, slightly higher than Celeres forecast of 85.2 MMT, and beating this year's record crop by 5.6%. There continues to be talk of this year's late planted crop being vulnerable to an early freeze. Michael Cordonnier said that late developing soybeans are at risk and that in a worst case scenario we could see yields fall to 40.0 bu/acre or lower, versus a best case scenario of yields at 43.5-44.0 bu/acre. Trade estimates for next week's USDA report have US bean yields at an average of 43.472 bu/acre, from within a range of estimates of 42.0-44.4 bu/acre. The USDA's July estimate was 44.5 bu/acre and the 2012 US yield was 39.6 bu/acre. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 400-800,000 MT for beans, and 125-275,000 MT for meal. Aug 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.27 3/4, up 3 1/2 cents; Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD11.65 3/4, down 1 1/2 cents; Aug 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD400.30, up USD4.30; Aug 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.64, down 47 points.

Corn: Agroconsult forecast the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 75.7 MMT versus the USDA's current estimate of 72.0 MMT and output of 77.0 MMT this year. Michael Cordonnier said that late planted US corn is at risk of early frost damage in the north and northwest US corn belt due to development delays. If early frosts develop in September we may see corn yield potential fall to around 150.0 bu/acre. In an "ideal situation" US corn yields will be about 160.0 bu/acre, he said. Trade estimates for Monday's USDA crop report have the US corn yield at an average of 157.72 bu/acre, from within a range of estimates of 154.0-161.2 bu/acre. The USDA's July estimate was 156.5 bu/acre and the 2012 yield was 123.4 bu/acre. Looking even further ahead, US fertiliser group CF Industries forecast 2014 US corn plantings falling from this year's 75 year high of 97.4 million acres to around 92 million, although they noted that this is historically still rather high. The weekly report from the Energy Dept showed last week's US ethanol production was up 21,000 barrels/day from last week to 853,000 bpd. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 475-875 TMT. Sep 13 Corn closed at USD4.68 1/4, down 4 cents; Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.58 1/4, down 1 cent.

Wheat: Wheat prices slipped lower on all three exchanges on ideas that US wheat is missing out on the export front to cheaper offers from Eastern Europe, the Black Sea, Australia and Canada in all but "traditional" US homes. Australian new crop wheat is now little more than a couple of months away. ANZ Banking Group estimated their wheat crop at 26.5 MMT this year, 1 MMT more than the current USDA estimate and 4.5 MMT higher than last year. Iraq bought wheat from Australia and Canada earlier in the week. The latter is also expecting a big crop this year, potentially the highest since 1991 according to Lanworth Inc. Europe is also looking at an increase in what production this year, and will be keen to market that to local homes in North Africa. There it will find tough competition from the FSU countries, who are also dominating business into the Middle East. Then we also still have India looking to offload some of it's surplus wheat left over from 3 years of bumper production in 2010, 2011 and 2012. Russia said that its intervention sales program is now over, having sold more than 3.7 MMT of mostly wheat since sales began last October. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales report are 500-700 TMT. Sep 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.43 1/2, down 7 cents; Sep 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD6.99, down 3 cents; Sep 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.36 1/4, down 3 1/4 cents.