Nogger's Blog

27/08/13 -- Here's the 30 year seasonal chart for front month CBOT soybeans along with how this year's performance compares underneath. There's a fair bit of similarity, particularly in relation to this latest move, don't you think?

Both charts (click to enlarge them) start with the soybean price on Jan 1st being 100%, and show the subsequent fluctuations in prices as a percentage of that Jan 1st value for the remainder of the year.

A July annual peak is traditionally met by a mid/early August low. The "normal" pattern suggests that beans typically regain around half, maybe a bit more, of the losses incurred from the July peak to the August trough in the second half of August and early part of September. If we were to do that again then we'd be looking at front month soybean prices in the USD14.50-15.00/bushel range.

Note though that harvest pressure typically drags beans back down to below the early August low by the beginning of October.

They've done studies, you know, 60% of the time it works every time.