Chicago MIxed, Beans Rebound From 1-Month Lows, Corn At 3-Year Low
24/09/13 -- US Crop Weather: "One inch of rainfall occurred in the Midwest last week, the highest weekly amount since late June. Rainfall is much to late to rescue soybeans and corn from a depressed yield. The generous rain gave corn a boost as US corn conditions improved to 55% good-excellent, 29% fair and 16% poor-very poor. US soybeans remained stable with 50% good-excellent, 33% fair and 17% poor-very poor. Corn development has advanced in September with above normal temperatures (4 F above average). The warmth has extended the growing, pushing US corn maturity to 40%. Producers in the northern Midwest are happy for the warmth, particularly in Iowa and Minnesota. Corn was planted very late in slow-developing spring, needing extra heat units to bring the crop to safe maturity. Iowa corn was only 35% ripe on September 22 representing a 10-12 day delay in maturity. Minnesota corn was only 17% mature. Warm temperatures are expected to prevail for another week at least, ideal for late-maturity crops. Generous rainfall last week may be too late for soybeans to reap yield benefits. It takes 30-35 days for soybean seeds to fully develop once pods are set. Rain in mid September would help only the latest pod-filling soybeans. Note that 72% of US soybeans were setting pods August 18. Thus only the last 28% of soybeans still filling pods would benefit from late-September rainfall. Nearly half of soybeans were shedding leaves September 22, indicating early senescence," said Martell Crop Projections.
Soycomplex: Beans rebounded from one month lows in modest "Turnaround Tuesday" trade. The fact that the USDA didn't see that last week's rains justified an increased good/excellent crop rating was a disappointment. Media reports suggest that, for the first time ever, Brazil will export more soybeans this year than they will crush. Despite record production in 2012/13 they will in fact have the smallest domestic crush since 2009 this year. The Feb/Jul Brazilian crush was 19.3 MMT, down 7% versus the same period in 2012, according to Abiove. Oil World said that Argentina's Aug soybean exports were 1.75 MMT, almost double the 0.9 MMT shipped out in July and the 0.88 MMT exported in Aug 2012. Unlike last year there are still old crop soybeans left to export in South America it would seem. That's probably due to a combination of bumper 2012/13 production and shipping problems earlier in the year. CNGOIC estimated China’s 2013/14 rapeseed imports at a record high 3.59 MMT, up 54% from a year ago. The Chinese government are to allow crushers to import 200 TMT of Russian rapeseed in 2013/14. The rest will mostly come from Canada and Australia. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2013 US bean yields at 40.5 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He also estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian soybean area at 29.0 million, up 1.3 million, or 4.7%, on last year. He forecast the Brazilian crop next year at a record 88 MMT, up 7.3% versus 2012/13. He also estimated the 2013/14 Argentine bean area up one million ha at 20.5 million ha. Their production in 2013/14 will be 55.0 MMT, up 11% versus last year's 49.5 MMT, he said. He estimated the total 2013/14 South American bean crop at a record 158.8 MMT versus 146.4 MMT in 2012/13. Argentine soybean plantings have yet to start. A Buenos Aires Grains Exchange weather analyst said that severe frosts are in the forecast for Argentina over the weekend. Somar said that soybean plantings in the leading Brazilian soybean state of Mato Grosso are only 1% done. There's some talk of a Midwest frost/freeze event for around October 8-9th. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD13.12 1/2, up 4 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD13.14 3/4, up 4 1/4 cents; Oct 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD414.10, up USD3.00; Oct 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.84, down 13 points.
Corn: The corn market fell back below USD4.50/bu on front month Dec 13 after the USDA surprisingly raised good/excellent crop ratings for US corn by 2 percentage points to 55%. ProFarmer raised their US 2013 corn production forecast to a record 13.5 billion bushels. Dr Cordonnier estimated 2013 US corn yields at 152.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian total corn area at 15.0 million ha versus 15.9 million last year. He's got production in 2013/14 at 72.0 MMT, down 11% versus the 2012/13 record crop of 81.0 MMT. Plantings and production are also seen lower in neighbouring Argentina where he has the 2013/14 Argentine corn area at 3.5 million ha versus 3.8 million in 2012/13 and output at 25.0 MMT versus 26.5 MMT in 2012/13. He estimated the total 2013/14 South American corn crop at 100.6 MMT versus 111.6 MMT a year ago. Corn plantings in Argentina are around 3% done, he added. First crop corn planting is underway in Brazil. Rio Grande do Sul is said to be 41% complete versus the 5-year average of 32%. Santa Catarina is 39% complete versus the 5-year average of 34%. Parana is 13% complete versus the 5-year average of 7%. Sao Paulo is 1% complete, in line with the 5-year average. Conab will make their first 2013/14 Brazilian crop production estimates on October 8th. The USDA announced 180 TMT of US corn sold to Colombia for 2013/14 delivery. Harvest pressure and continued reports of better than expected US corn yields weighs on the market. This was the lowest close for a front month in CBOT corn for more than 3 years, yet even so US cash prices are still expensive compared to the competition. "Fob offers as of today showed the US Gulf at a USD16/ton premium to Argentina, a USD26/ton premium to Brazil and a USD28/ton premium to the Ukraine for October. The spread narrows for Nov/Dec, however the other origins still maintain a significant price advantage," said Benson Quinn Commodities. Weekly US ethanol production data will be released tomorrow. Last week's output was 838,000 barrels/day. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.48 3/4, down 4 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.61 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market managed to shrug off falling corn prices and drag itself higher on short-covering and seasonal factors. Friday's Commitment of Traders report had funds sitting on a near record short position in CBOT wheat. Taiwan bought 92,350 MT of US wheat for Nov/Dec shipment, in a combination of dark northern spring, HRW, and western white wheat. India said that they want to export 2 MMT of wheat, and issued a tender for 160 TMT, although the government's minimum price ideas of USD300/tonne are well above market levels. They may use the bid prices to gauge how much they need to revise their aspirations, although with an election not too far away the government may not want to be seen to be losing too much money on the deal and providing the opposition with some mud to sling their way. Dropping their price by around USD30/tonne to get closer to world market levels loses them a cool USD600 million. Even then they might not get knocked over in the rush. Egypt have been buying wheat at around USD255/tonne lately. Ukraine wheat was said to be the cheapest offer in an Iraqi tender to buy wheat. Bangladesh are also tendering for wheat. Tunisia bought 59 TMT of optional origin durum wheat for Oct/Nov shipment. Russia said that they will start purchasing grain for the intervention fund in the first 10 days of October. They are expected to buy 2-3 MMT by the end of the year. Their grain harvest now stands at 74 MMT off 72.3% of plan, with yields averaging 2.22 MT/ha versus 1.83 MT/ha this time last year. The Ag Ministry are sticking to a production forecast of 88-90 MMT, although that is now starting to look a little low. The Kazkah Ministry have been low with a production estimate of 15 MMT for most of the summer, they now say 18.5 MMT versus 12.8 MMT last year. A hard frost is in the forecast for Argentina over the weekend, which could damage wheat there. Brazil's crop has already been adversely affected by frost this year. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.58 1/4, up 4 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.05, up 7 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.05, up 6 1/4 cents.
