Nogger's Blog

15/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed modestly lower in directionless trade as many operators sit on the sidelines owing to the lack of fresh information from the USDA and others. The market did get some export inspection numbers from the Grain Inspection, Packers and Stockyards Administration (GIPSA). For beans they were a better than expected 47.4 million bushels (expecting 27-43 million). Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian bean crop at 88.0 MMT and the Argentine crop at 55 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. He said that Brazilian planting is about 5-7% done and in Argentina it's around 5% done. Oil World estimated the Brazilian soybean area at a record 29.0 million ha, up from 27.7 million last year. They forecast the Argentine soybean area at 19.7 million ha versus 19.1 million last year. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2013 US soybean yield at 41.0 bu/acre, and forecast the harvest at 40-45% complete. Chinese analysts forecast soybean imports in October at 4.6 MMT, rising to around 6.5 MMT each in Nov and Dec. The NOPA US crush for September was low, but above expectations at 108.6 million bushels versus the anticipated 106.4 million. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at USD12.67, down 6 cents, but with holding above the recent lows; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at USD12.66, down 5 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at USD402.40, down USD5.00; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.66, up 27 points.

Corn: Corn closed around 6 cents higher on short-covering and unwinding of spreads. Weekly export inspections from GIPSA for corn came in at at 21.7 million bushels versus the expected 23-31 million. Dr Cordonnier estimated the 2013/14 Brazilian corn crop at 72.0 MMT and the Argentine corn crop at 25.0 MMT, both unchanged from his previous estimates. He said that 15% of the Argentine corn crop has been planted. Oil World estimated the Brazilian corn area falling from 15.9 million hectares last year to 15.4 million this time round, with Argentina's dropping from 4.6 million to 4.3 million. There's talk that dryness in Argentina could eventually see a greater shift out of corn and into beans. Dr Cordonnier pegged US corn yields at 154.0 bu/acre, unchanged from his previous estimate. He forecast that 30-35% of the US corn crop has been harvested. Ukraine has harvested more than 44.5 MMT of grains off 81% of the planned area, corn accounts for 11.36 MMT of that off 41% of plan. That suggests that early season hopes for a crop approaching 30 MMT may have been a bit optimistic. Russia's corn crop is 29.8% harvested at 3.8 MMT. Customs data shows that Brazil exported 15.7 MMT of corn in the first nine months of this year (Jan/Sep), up more than 66% on the same period in 2012. The top home was South Korea (2.6 MMT), followed by Japan (2.5 MMT), but the figures also included 1.0 MMT exported to the US. The weekly US ethanol production report is expected to be released tomorrow. Last week's production was 868,000 barrels/day, nearly 900,000 bpd is needed to meet the USDA target for 2013/14. Dec 13 Corn closed at USD4.43 1/2, up 6 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at USD4.55 3/4, up 6 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed around 6 cents lower on all three exchanges. Weekly export inspections came in at 25.3 million bushels, below the expected 27-35 million. There's talk of India lowering it's price ambitions on wheat exports, which could cap market upside. Russia's wheat harvest is past 90% done at 51.2 MMT. Winter grain plantings have only been completed on 10.5 million hectares, 3.8 million lower than this time a year ago and only 64% of the original target. Ukraine has got 6 million hectares (73%) of it's targeted area sown, down 1.2 million on a year ago. Brazilian customs data shows that they imported 589 TMT of wheat last month, with 83.5% of it (492 TMT) coming from the US (and none from sold-out Argentina). Jan/Sep imports stand at 5.24 MMT, with 2.52 MMT being supplied by Argentina and 1.96 MMT coming from the US. There's talk that Argentine millers are asking the government to impose a cap on exports for 2013/14 to build reserves. They are expected to begin harvesting a crop of around 10 MMT in Argentina around the second half of November. Newly planted winter wheat on the US Plains has seen plenty of rain to get it established ahead of winter. In some cases it's said to have seen too much rain as there's talk of some crops having to be replanted having got flooded out. Japan is tendering for 112,031 MT of milling wheat for Nov/Jan shipment of a mixture of US, Canadian and Australian origin. Russia has kicked off it's new crop intervention purchases program today, buying just over 28 TMT of mostly wheat on the domestic market. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at USD6.85 3/4, down 6 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at USD7.56 1/4, down 5 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at USD7.50 1/4, down 6 1/4 cents.