Chicago Dives On Harvest Pressure, Corn At 38-Month Lows

28/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Soybeans slumped back below $13/bu on active producer selling at the level and harvest pressure. The decline came even though the USDA announced the sale of 115 TMT of US beans to China for 2013/14 delivery, along with 115 TMT sold to unknown, also for 2013/14 delivery. What also should have been supportive was weekly export inspections of 83.6 million bushels, far above the 46-53 million anticipated and said to be the second largest weekly total on record. Corn falling to a more than 3-year low didn't help beans though. Safras e Mercado said Brazilian soybean planting is 26% complete versus 18% a week ago, 28% a year ago and 24% for the 5-year average. Ag Rural said Brazilian bean planting is 34% complete. Somar reported that after a dry September, parts of top producing state of Mato Grosso have received up to 6.1 inches of rain in October. There's some talk of reduced Chinese soybean imports going forward, the USDA have already set the bar extremely high at 69 MMT for 2013/14. The Chinese government have temporarily suspended their weekly soybean auctions whilst the buy the domestic crop to rebuild stocks. There's talk that when auctions resume the new offered prices will be lower. After the close the USDA pegged the 2013 US soybean harvest at 77% complete, slightly lower than the 78% average trade guess in a Reuters survey, but now bang in line with the 5-year average. Solid demand underpins the soybean and meal markets, and the anticipated record large South American crop is still quite a long way off - and it isn't made yet. That should support the nears at least across the next few months. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.71 1/4, down 28 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.68, down 25 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $414.70, down $8.80; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 40.36, down 37 points.

Corn: Nearby Dec 13 corn fell to fresh contract lows and the lowest levels for a front month since August 2010 on talk getting louder of much better than expected yields in the US. The USDA announcement of the sale of 103,600 MT of corn to unknown for 2013/14 delivery caused barely a ripple as funds were given credit for extending their corn short to the tune of around 12,000 contracts on the day. Weekly export inspections of 26.5 million bushels fell below trade estimates of 29-34 million. South Korea's Nofi tendered for 70 TMT of optional origin corn for March shipment. Argentina’s Ag Ministry said on Friday that 25% of the corn crop has been planted versus 19% a week ago and 39% a year ago. Very good and needed rains are in the forecast for Argentina Friday/Saturday. Russia's corn harvest is 45.3% done at 5.8 MMT. Ukraine's corn harvest is 58% complete at 16.8 MMT, leaving them on track for their much-anticipated record crop somewhere in the region of 28-29 MMT this year. Much warmer than normal weather conditions, and an extension of the current dry spell through to the end of the month should enable further good progress with corn harvesting to be made in the Black Sea region this week. The market was widely varied on where the US corn harvest would be in tonight's USDA report. A Reuters survey came out with an average guess of 52%. In fact the USDA said that the 2013 US corn harvest was 59% done, up sharply from 39% complete a week ago, and now almost in line with the 5-year average of 62%. Good/excellent crop conditions were also increased from 60% a week ago to 62%, supporting the trade notion that final average yields could be around the 160 bu/acre mark versus the 155.3 bu/acre that the USDA last gave us in September. Corn possibly carries the highest risk of a bearish production/yield estimate from the USDA in next week's WASDE report, so there could be more downside to come for it yet. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.30 3/4, down 9 1/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.43 1/4, down 8 3/4 cents.

Wheat: Wheat closed lower across the board on all three exchanges, pressured by corn hitting multi-year lows. Even so, based on tonight's close Dec 13 wheat is still a more than $2.50/bu premium to corn in Chicago, which will surely cap demand from the feed sector for wheat. South Korea's Nofi are tendering for 60 TMT of optional origin wheat for Feb shipment. Black Sea wheat could be the favourite there. Russia's wheat harvest is now 95.5% done at 53.4 MMT in bunker weight versus a final clean weight production of only 37.7 MMT in 2012. Ukraine's wheat harvest is over. Kazakhstan's is entering the final stages and should be completed by the end of the week. There's talk of Egypt being back in the wheat import market within 2-4 weeks, although it won't be US wheat that they will be buying when they do next tender. Egypt’s supply minister said that the country has enough wheat to last them through to Feb 18th. Weekly US export inspections for wheat came in at only 16.3 million bushels versus the 24-28 million that the trade was expecting/hoping for, and appear to be slowing down seasonally. The USDA said that the US winter wheat crop was 86% planted, just above the five year average of 85%. They said that 65% of the crop is emerged, slightly higher than 64% normally. Good/excellent crop conditions were pegged at 61% versus only 40% a year ago. The European Commission estimated the EU-28 2013 soft wheat crop at 133.5 MMT versus a previous estimate of 131.5 MMT. They pegged the EU-28 barley crop at 59.2 MMT, unchanged from previous estimate. For soft wheat that would represent an increase of 6.4% on 2012 and for barley it would be an 8% rise. Fund selling in Chicago wheat was estimated at around 2-3,000 lots on the day. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.81, down 9 3/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.50 3/4, down 8 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.36 1/2, down 8 1/2 cents.