Chicago Ends Mostly Lower Despite Good Export Sales
24/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Weekly soybean export sales of 929,800 MT (for the delayed reporting week to Oct 3) were supportive, with the market expecting 600-800 TMT. Meal sales of 850 TMT were the best of the season so far and well above the 150-250 TMT that the trade thought likely. For beans cumulative sales are now 74% of the USDA target for the full season versus 51% normally at this time. Meal sales are 45% of target compared to the 5-year average of 29%. The Midwest is seen cold but dry across the next 4 days, with some rains back in forecast for the 5-7 day period. MDA CropCast left their forecasts unchanged from a week ago for US soybean production at 3 billion bushels (81.63 MMT), along with Brazil (86.92 MMT) and Argentina (54.08 MMT). Brazil got widespread rains last week, and they should remain abundant again this week, they said. Early soybean growth should progress well, although these rains may slow planting a little, they added. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.09 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.03 3/4, down 1/4 cent; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $426.00, up $4.60; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.13, down 37 points.
Corn: The corn market closed 2-3 cents weaker despite weekly export sales for the week ending Oct 3 coming in at 1.34 MMT versus the 300-600 TMT that the trade was expecting. Of that total 428 TMT went to "unknown" destinations and 230,600 MT to China. Total net corn sales for the season now total 51% of USDA projections versus 43% normally at this time. Separately, the USDA reported the sale of 210 TMT of US corn to Mexico for 2013/14 shipment. Dryness in Argentina is expected to continue for another week, although some models have decent rains in the 6-10 day outlook. Corn planting there is already well behind schedule. Brazil is in line with normal though, and the weather there is now conforming to a more seasonally wet pattern. Russia's corn harvest is 42% done at 5.4 MMT. Yields are averaging 5.27 MT/ha, up 29% on this time last year. MDA CropCast left their forecast for the US 2013 corn crop unchanged at 13.357 billion bushels (339.3 MMT). There were no changes either for Brazil (73.6 MMT) or Argentina (24.9 MMT), nor indeed anywhere else around the globe. Midwest showers next week could slow harvesting a bit when/if they arrive, they noted. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.40 1/4, down 2 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.52 1/2, down 2 3/4 cents.
Wheat: The wheat market finished around 5-6 cents easier. Weekly export sales of 653,600 MT were in line with trade forecasts of 400-700 TMT, and included 192,500 MT for Brazil. Interest from the latter continues to provide a welcome boost for US exports. Cumulative sale are now running at 64% of the USDA target for the season versus 60% normally. India reportedly cancelled a wheat tender when the best bid (said to be $269 FOB) failed to live up to the government's unrealistic minimum target of $300 FOB. Two state-owned firms are now tendering to sell 280 TMT of wheat for Dec shipment. There's talk of the government revising it's price ideas lower, possibly down to a minimum floor price of $260 FOB to open the door for more sales. State-owned stocks are well above recommended buffer levels after a couple of years of bumper Indian wheat production. Another 92-94 MMT wheat crop is expected this spring. MDA CropCast cut their forecast for the Argentine wheat crop by 0.9 MMT from last week to 10 MMT. Russian winter grain plantings have advanced 4.2 million hectares in the past fortnight to now stand at 13.4 million ha. The weather outlook there seems conducive to further expansion for the next 5-7 days. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.96 1/2, down 5 1/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.64 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.52 1/4, down 6 1/2 cents.
