Nogger's Blog

10/10/13 -- US Weather, from Martell Crop Projections: Indian summer weather is coming to a halt with a cold wet forecast in central United States. The first frost of the season is anticipated in the northern Midwest. The weather is set to deteriorate today in the Northern Great Plains with a wave of strong showers. This would be followed by more wet weather on the weekend. A powerful storm would lift out of the Southwest United States tracking north through western parts of South Dakota and North Dakota into Canada. Widespread rain is indicated in the Great Plains and Upper Midwest. Very heavy rains would target Nebraska, Minnesota, South Dakota and North Dakota, 1-3 inches. East of the Mississippi River, dryness is expected to continue, allowing the harvest to advance. Sharply colder air would sweep into the north-central United States behind the storm. A hard freeze is predicted in Montana and North Dakota Sunday morning and scattered frost in Nebraska and western Iowa. This would be 1-2 weeks later than the average date for the first fall freeze. Late planted corn and soybeans greatly benefited from an extended warm fall, allowing crop development to advance toward maturity. September-October temperatures have averaged 68.9 F and 4 degrees above normal. The wet forecast is favourable for winter wheat planting in the Great Plains. Kansas has received near normal moisture in September and October, but more rain would be desirable, enhancing germination and promoting high plant populations. Oklahoma wheat has received around 90% of average rain this fall the second top wheat state. The new forecast is wet in the central and southern Plains where winter wheat is heavily cultivated.

Soycomplex: Beans trade around 4-7 cents higher, with meal up a dollar or so and oil 35 points firmer in early trade in the daytime open outcry session. Good harvest weather is forecast for the Midwest through to Saturday. Rains are in forecast Sun-Wed. Talk that China is buying more US soybeans is seen as supportive. US farmers seem to be holding onto their new crop beans, hoping for higher prices to come. The US government shutdown grinds on, although there are signs of increased optimism of some sort of deal being done within days, even if offers only a temporary solution to the problem. Paraguay's government have approved a 10% soybean export tax.

Corn: Corn trades around 5-6 cents easier on harvest pressure. There's talk that China have been in the market for US corn this week, but with the USDA closed there's no official confirmation. Corn used in last week’s US ethanol production data is estimated at 91.14 million bushels versus the 94.4 million bushel average needed each week to reach the USDA projection for the year. MDA CropCast left their forecast for the US 2013 corn crop unchanged at 13.357 billion bushels, or 339.3 MMT, up 30.7% on last year. Strategie Grains raised there forecast for EU-28 corn production from 64.0 MMT to 64.9 MMT, up 13% on last year. Russia's corn crop is approaching a quarter done, producing over 3 MMT to date. Colombia and Venezuela are seeking US corn for early 2014 shipment,

Wheat: CBOT wheat trades around 2 cents easier. Egypt cancelled their wheat import tender to the surprise of the trade. Traders noted with interest that there were no offers of Ukraine wheat made. Framers in Western Australia state are said to be excited by the prospect of a bumper harvest this year, which is just about underway. Strategie Grains cut their EU-28 soft wheat production estimate from 135.5 MMT to 135.2 MMT, although that still 8% more than a year ago. Russia's wheat harvest now stands at 50.2 MMT off 88% of the planned area. Russian winter grain plantings are only done on 9.2 million ha versus 14.0 million this time a year ago. Trade estimates are than only 12.5-14.0 million ha of the planned 16.4 million will get sown before winter sets in hard.