Chicago Market Ends Higher On Strong Export Demand
23/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Strong export demand underpins soybeans. The USDA reported the sale of 120,000 MT of US soybeans to Russia for 2013/14 delivery. An unusual sale, and one that was said to be the largest single Russian purchase of US beans in 12 years. The USDA attaché in Brazil estimated Brazil’s 2013/14 soybean crop at a record high 88.0 MMT, the same as the USDA themselves forecast in September. The attaché pegged Brazilian 2013/14 soybean exports at 45 MMT, versus the 42.5 MMT estimated by the USDA themselves last month. Lanworth estimated the 2013 US soybean crop at 3.215 billion bushels, with yields at 41.8 bu/acre. They pegged the world soybean crop at a record 288 MMT, up 2 MMT from previously. Oil World forecast the Brazilian soybean crop at 87.3 MMT (from 81.6 MMT in 2012/13), with Argentina producing 53 MMT (48.5 MMT). They also forecast large jumps in rapeseed production from Canada (16.4 MMT from 14.0 MMT) and Europe (21 MMT from 19.7 MMT. Weekly export sales for the week ending Oct 3 will be released tomorrow. The trade is expecting bean sales of around 600-800 TMT. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $13.10, up 7 3/4 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $13.04, up 6 1/2 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $421.40, up $5.30; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.50, down 2 points.
Corn: Corn jumped on short-covering, aided by weekly ethanol production rising to a 16-month high 897,000 barrels/day. There's good export interest around, although generally it isn't necessarily US corn that they are buying. Vietnam bought 400,000 MT of Brazilian corn for Jan/March shipment at values said to be around $245-250 C&F. Taiwan bought 60 TMT of Brazilian corn from Dec shipment, rejecting US offers on price. South Korea's Kocopia bought 55 TMT of US or South American origin corn for Feb shipment. Lanworth estimated the global corn crop at 955.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 952.0 MMT. They see the US corn crop at 13.792 billion bushels, with yields at 156.2 bu/acre. The weather in Brazil is looking up, but Argentina remains dry in Buenos Aires province, Cordoba and southern Santa Fe. Corn planting here is well behind schedule and we may ultimately see a larger switch out of corn and into beans than the market currently expects. Trade estimates for tomorrow's weekly export sales are 300-600 TMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.42 3/4, up 4 1/2 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.55 1/4, up 4 1/4 cents.
Wheat: Chicago wheat managed to close above USD7/bu, although only just. Whilst there is strong world demand for wheat, corn prices at less than $4.50/bu are capping the upside for now. South Korea bought 54,600 MT of US milling wheat for Feb/March shipment along with 25,500 MT of Canadian milling wheat for Feb shipment. Some analysts are cutting their forecasts for Australian wheat production this year on crop damage in eastern states. A Reuters poll put Australia’s 2013/14 wheat crop at 25.3 MMT, up versus last year's crop of 22.1 MMT but below the USDA's 25.5 MMT forecast. Some other estimates have been at 26.0 MMT. The Commonwealth Bank of Australia trimmed their forecast from 25.2 MMT to 23.6 MMT. Lanworth estimated the world wheat crop at 707.0 MMT versus a previous estimate of 706.0 MMT. The Argentine Ministry are yet to release a corrected version of their "honest error" forecast for a wheat crop there of only 8.8 MMT. Weekly export sales due out tomorrow are expected to come in between 400-700,000 MT. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $7.01 3/4, up 1 cent; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.70 3/4, up 5 1/4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.58 3/4, up 2 1/2 cents.
