Chicago Mixed Ahead Of USDA Export Sales Data
30/10/13 -- Soycomplex: Beans closed around 5-8 cents higher in a bit of follow-through momentum from yesterday. The trade is expecting the USDA to show no let up in demand for US soybeans when it releases 3 weeks worth of export sales tomorrow, market expectations are for bean sales of around 2.5-3.0 MMT, along with meal sales of maybe 1.0-1.5. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 US soybean crop at 3.215 billion bushels and estimated yields at 41.8 bu/acre, both unchanged from their previous estimates. In September the USDA said 3.149 billion bushels, and pegged yields at 41.2 bu/acre. Lanworth estimated the 2013/14 global bean crop at 288.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. South Korea's Nofi bought 15 TMT of Indian soymeal at $575 C&;F for Jan/Feb shipment along with 10 TMT of Indian rapemeal at $272.95 C&F for Feb shipment as they seek to reduce costs by buying lower priced raw materials from one of the cheapest oilmeal sellers in the world. Ecuador bought 30 TMT of US meal for Jan shipment. Decent and needed rain is in the forecast for Argentina tomorrow. The GFS model has most of Brazil, apart from the already wet south, picking up better than average rains across the next two weeks. Argentina announced an additional 2 MMT of soybean export licenses. Nov 13 Soybeans closed at $12.87 1/2, up 8 1/2 cents; Jan 14 Soybeans closed at $12.76 1/2, up 5 3/4 cents; Dec 13 Soybean Meal closed at $411.80, up $1.00; Dec 13 Soybean Oil closed at 41.62, up 65 points.
Corn: The corn market continues to moved sideways, and generally trades within a narrow range. The trade is expecting corn export sales across the last three weeks to total around 2.0-2.5 MMT tomorrow. Rumour persists that China has been in for US corn as prices fell to more than 3-year lows. South Korea bought 368 TMT of US corn for Mar/Apr shipment at levels said to be around $245-246 C&F. South Korea's Nofi bought it's first US corn in 16 months yesterday, fostering ideas that prices have now fallen far enough to stimulate extra export interest. Taiwan's MIPA also bought 60 TMT of US corn in a tender for Jan/Feb shipment today. Additional supportive news came from US ethanol production rising 14,000 barrels/day from last week to to 911,000 barrels/day, the highest weekly total since June 2010. Nevertheless, the prospect of a large hike in US 2013 corn yields and production from the USDA next week hangs over the market. Many in the trade are now talking of yields in the 160-162 bu/acre region versus the 155.3 bu/acre that the USDA gave us in September. Lanworth aren't that optimistic, they estimated yields at 156.4 bu/acre versus a previous estimate of 156.2 bu/acre. They have the US 2013 corn crop at 13.795 billion bushels versus a previous estimate of 13.792 billion and 13.843 billion from the USDA in September. Ukraine's corn crop is 62% harvested at 17.89 MMT. Russia's is 49% cut at 6.3 MMT. Dec 13 Corn closed at $4.30 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents; Mar 14 Corn closed at $4.41 3/4, down 2 1/2 cents.
Wheat: Wheat closed around 4-6 cents easier across the three exchanges. Low corn prices are weighing on wheat. The wheat premium over corn in Chicago at around $2.50/bushel is the largest since mid-2010. India announced that it was to lower the minimum price it's prepared to accept for wheat from $300/tonne to $260/tonne, which is expected to trigger significant sales volumes from less discerning buyers. The USDA projects Indian exports of 5.5 MMT in the current marketing year, some think that this might rise closer to 7 MMT. The USDA attache in Russia lowered their production estimate by 1.5 MMT to 51.5 MMT (in clean weight) and cut exports by 1 MMT to 15 MMT. The Russian harvest is 96.8% done at 53.6 MMT in bunker weight. Last year's clean weight production was 37.7 MMT. Lanworth raised their forecast for Australian wheat production from 24.82 MMT to 25.29 MMT. They estimated the 2013/14 global wheat crop at 707.0 MMT, unchanged from their previous estimate. The Brazilian Trade Ministry raised the tax-free wheat import quota by 600,000 MT to 3.3 MMT, and extended the duty-free period until the end of November. That keeps the window of opportunity for US wheat open a little while longer yet, many don't expect it to shut at all during 2013/14. Trade ideas for tomorrow's 3 week's worth of export sales are around 1.5-2.0 MMT. Dec 13 CBOT Wheat closed at $6.75, down 6 1/4 cents; Dec 13 KCBT Wheat closed at $7.47 3/4, down 4 cents; Dec 13 MGEX Wheat closed at $7.32, down 4 1/2 cents.
